Sure, but all this misses my point that these are comparisons. This is what has happened with other technology in a similar ballpark of "we know how to do this, we can (technically) do this". You're arbitrarily selecting for a specific outcome in the space of all possible outcomes. When not only do we not know enough about any outcome to favour it, but we have knowledge of how other technology being developed in a similar space, with similar constraints, turned out -- i.e. it didn't turn out at all how we expected in any specific way".

So let's be honest here, in the space of all possible outcomes -- the negative outcomes where "it doesn't work" or "it works but is too slow to use" or "it doesn't understand how it works either", is a larger order of infinity than the outcomes where it does work, at least based on what has happened with pretty much every other technology that we have records of predictions for (Is there a technology that we have predicted where it wasn't wildly different or handicapped compared to our dreams? I'd honestly like to know TBH).

There is literally no reason for pontificating more over this. All of this, the best guesses, the worst guesses, is all just a variety of wishful thinking. The only true answer is we have no fucking idea.