It has already been planted.
This aligns with every single combat photo I've seen thus far. I don't think I've seen one field of winter wheat. So the shortfall is not in winter wheat, but in the types planted right now.
1. How many photos from the war have you seen of farmland? It's not exactly the prime battleground.
2. We can assume that you can recognize winter wheat at this stage from photos not focused on the crop? It, of course, looks like someone's dead lawn when it first emerges from it's winter rest. Hard to differentiate from any other grassy area unless the photo has a lot of detail.
On that note, I started looking at some random pictures after I read your comment. I came across this one[1] of a field. Wheat or no in your opinion? In my opinion as a winter wheat grower: I have no idea. Maybe.
[1] https://asianatimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/XFXJX6VK3...
Winter wheat accounts for about 97 percent of Ukraine’s total wheat production. It is planted from early September to mid-November and harvested between July and September.
So depending on what happens with the invasion, it seems possible that a substantial portion might still be harvested on schedule.
2. Does it? I've never seen a lawn planted in 7-8" rows.
Regardless of the species of plant in the photo, does that look like a tilled field to you?
I've never seen 7.5" rows be row-able at that stage unless you line yourself up just perfectly. Given that the photographers aren't focused on the crop itself, what are the chances? With sufficient resolution of the photo maybe you can still tell, but someone's random cell phone photo isn't going to give you that. Even a top of the line camera scaled down to web resolutions is going to lose that information.
> Regardless of the species of plant in the photo, does that look like a tilled field to you?
No, but why would you till it? Wheat is the easiest crop to no-till out there. Even the moldboard mafia no-till their wheat. You'd have to be dealing with some heavy compaction or other issues with the land to justify that fuel burn just to grow poverty grass.