FYI this is an analysis of your average returns at YC: https://80000hours.org/2014/05/how-much-do-y-combinator-foun...

I still wish that YC would provide some more concrete figures, and ideally include separate figures for first employees as well as founders.

From link: “Most of the returns have gone to a tiny minority of super-successes. The founders of AirBnB, Dropbox and Stripe are worth about US$7 billion, about 80% of all founders’ equity, although they account for 0.5% of the companies. Outside of the most successful companies, it was still possible to earn significant returns. 12% of companies from the first five years of Y Combinator are now worth US$40 million or more, and a further 10% have sold for US$5-40 million. The remainder probably earned little more than their (low) salaries.”.

This is where the analogy fails, I think, because it assumes a static market price, or a lack of competition for the tickets. Where the price changes or competition changes availability, we run into the same issues where those who already have power/money are more able to exploit the system than those who have to collude just to have a shot.