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Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by jliptzin on Monday March 28, 2022 @05:56PM (#30836118)
Yea, now just imagine how many smarter people are doing it and getting away with it
Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by kasey_junk on Monday March 28, 2022 @08:29PM (#30837260)
Not many? Describe the trade steps necessary to insider trade with high leverage that isn’t trivial for a data analytics program to flag with high confidence?
Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by extr on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @12:52AM (#30838906)
I don't find it hard to imagine.

1. Work for a company that provides signal-giving infrastructure for a variety of companies across disparate industries. Twilio is actually a perfect example.

2. Find someone to work with that already has or is willing to build a plausible history of so-so trades.

3. Occasionally tip this person off that company Y in industry X is about to have a good quarter. Never trade the same company twice. Parallel construct a plausible rationale for the trade based on public market signals if you want to sleep well at night.

4. Don't communicate over easily subpoenaed channels, obviously. The SEC isn't the NSA, basic OPSEC is fine.

5. Profit?

That's why I'm so disappointed by the OP! It's so easy to dream up a situation where they used their access in an effectively untraceable way.

Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by kasey_junk on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @03:58AM (#30839997)
That provides extremely low edge for both parties involved. Your participant with a history of trades could just as easily do research using public information (company press release aggregation is a classic version) to get similar edge without entering a criminal conspiracy.

Notice I mention high leverage. There are 2 challenges (as I see it) to committing insider trading. The first is having information ahead of time that actually predicts how the market will move based on the information. It’s not enough to know a company will have a good quarter you need to know it will be better than expected.

Second you need to be able to make outsized returns on that information. You have to beat the market returns by themselves. This compounds with the other issue above. The less obviously market moving data you have the more leverage you need.

This narrows the search space pretty considerably for an analytics based approach. You look at insiders with lots of access or anyone making high leverage bets.

Finally, do a mental exercise on your step 2. What does that even look like? An insider randomly approaching hedge funds? A random encounter at a bar? A frat reunion where they share each other’s trading history like term papers?

Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by extr on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @05:04PM (#30848345)
I guess I'm imagining more of a situation where you are working with someone (or yourself) that already has a sophisticated understanding of the market's expectations, and you wait for opportunities where your inside info is not priced in well. Eg, a delivery app is expected to have another strong quarter of growth, but your data says that growth has stalled.

However if I'm reading your point correctly, you're saying this is harder than it sounds. If you already have a "sophisticated" understanding of the market enough to make this work with low edge, why bother with a criminal conspiracy. And to make outsized returns, you need to use lots of leverage, in which case you're taking on more risk of exposure.

Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by refurb on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @04:02AM (#30840018)
How do you get the profit into your hands?

Cash? Bitcoin?

Will this other person keep their mouth shut when the SEC comes knocking because some very successful traders seems to be handling a lot of cash or crypto? Or will they flip on you to stay out of prison?

Read up on Matt Levine's many, many examples of people getting busted for insider trading.

Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by extr on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @05:06PM (#30848362)
Not sure how a random user of /r/WSB who has been receiving anonymous insider tips in return for 50% of the gains, to be paid in untraceable crypto, is going to "flip" :D
Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by refurb on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @10:15PM (#30850812)
Crypto is not untraceable.

Crypto is useless unless converted into cash which requires identifying yourself.

Said WSBer could just take your tips and keep all the money.

Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by extr on Wednesday March 30, 2022 @12:13AM (#30851425)
Very true. I find it to be a fun thought exercise though. Kind of like asking your friends around the dinner table how they would rob a bank.
Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by 55555 on Monday March 28, 2022 @11:25PM (#30838413)
1. Find out using inside information that Twilio is having a good quarter due to macro conditions

2. Buy deep OTM call options in… a similar company that’s in the same business as Twilio

3. Never get in any trouble

Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by Bedon292 on Monday March 28, 2022 @11:44PM (#30838518)
But that's not insider trading. You don't have inside information on that other company. You have a guess that their business is doing similar. When perhaps Twilio is doing so well because they took business from that competitor or something else that makes them stand out.
Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by willdearden on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @12:33AM (#30838791)
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-155

You absolutely can get charged for trading in a similar company.

Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by Bedon292 on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @08:49AM (#30841810)
Interesting, hadn't heard of that one before. With some digging this appears to be the first case where they have ever charged someone for "shadow trading" like this. And it is still making its way through the courts. Definitely will be following that.
Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by extr on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @12:59AM (#30838944)
This is another situation where I am literally dumbfounded at the actions of the indicted. How are you smart enough to know what options are and how to buy them but stupid enough to think that you won't get caught making such a blatant trade?

It's like these people think they're the first ones to ever come up with the idea of trading on privileged information so there's no way they'll get caught.

Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by kasey_junk on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @03:46AM (#30839917)
It’s literally a running gag on Matt Levite’s newsletter that all the SEC needs to do to keep their enforcement quota up is to search their database for any deep OTM option trades around earnings announcements.
Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by jliptzin on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @06:28PM (#30849171)
If that’s the case couldn’t anyone just scan for suspicious trades like that and copy the position?
Re:Twilio employees, associates charged with insider trading... by kasey_junk on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @11:11PM (#30851176)
Yes if they have the SEC database of trades?