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Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by planetsprite on Monday March 28, 2022 @12:48PM (#30832534)
>Once we make X economical, we will have all the Y we want

True for like 99% of things that could ever exist. The big question is is it possible, and is that really the only hurdle. IMO Uranium extraction isn't the bottleneck to nuclear power, building and maintaining the plants is.

Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by Manuel_D on Monday March 28, 2022 @01:50PM (#30833378)
Correct. An even though fuel costs are significant, it's mostly the enrichment that drives up the cost. Even at the present un-economical seawater extraction rates, the overall cost increase would be negligible: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/07/01/uranium-s...
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by aidenn0 on Monday March 28, 2022 @12:53PM (#30832606)
I think it's actually false 99% of the time, because as soon as we get Y for cheap, we start consuming it more, and we are back to not having enough Y.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by baryphonic on Monday March 28, 2022 @06:04PM (#30836187)
99% of the time seems excessively high. The changes in demand are really dependent on the properties of the good in question.

Also, this phenomenon is called the "income effect"[0]: as the price of a good Y falls relative to other goods, consumers' "income" will increase in a real sense (i.e. they'll be able to consume more of all goods), so they may increase consumption of Y, depending on whether Y is "inferior," "normal" or "luxury." The definitions of these concepts have to be made carefully to avoid circularity, but suffice it to say that 99% of goods are not normal.

Energy, however, is a normal good when measured, though a 2x increase in income leads to less than a 2x increase in energy consumption for a sufficient starting level of income. (If you were living in a remote village that was only recently electrified, for instance, electricity would be a luxury good: increases in income would lead to significant increases in consumption of electricity up to a certain point.)

What's more interesting is how firms react. Decreases in energy costs could lead to significant increases in productivity for firms, allowing for economies of scale that did not exist ex ante. This isn't really "consumption" per se, as energy is being "converted" into another good. But it seems likely that firms' demand for energy could increase quite a bit as the price for energy decreases.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_choice#Income_effect

Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by nxmnxm99 on Monday March 28, 2022 @01:21PM (#30832973)
Correct. We'll all be driving nuclear jet aircraft in 70 years as global uranium reserves deplete.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by r00fus on Monday March 28, 2022 @01:29PM (#30833102)
Clearly the shielding problem will have been resolved by then as well (or we have genetically adapted our grandchildren to be rad-hardened).
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by FrenchDevRemote on Monday March 28, 2022 @01:41PM (#30833264)
can't we use many different things for nuclear though?(and uranium is just the most efficient?)

+in 70 years we'd probably have fusion

Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by aidenn0 on Monday March 28, 2022 @02:10PM (#30833623)
> can't we use many different things for nuclear though?(and uranium is just the most efficient?)

Strictly speaking, U-235 is the only fissile isotope of any element that is found in any significant amounts in nature. However, breeder reactors can also be useful. The only two starter points I'm aware of in nature for significant energy extraction are U-238 and Th-232. U-238 breeder reactors are politically complicated because they can relatively easily be used to generate significant amounts of Plutonium which is usable in bombs.

Th-232 reactors have technical hurdles that are probably surmountable; specifically the neutron economy is significantly tighter than U-238 breeder reactors (this is why you often see liquid-salt reactors proposed for Th; chemically separating the decay products gives plenty of breathing room in the neutron economy). The U-233 it generates is also usable in bombs, but since it will tend to also generate U-232, which is both difficult to work with and easy to detect, it's considered less of a proliferation risk.

This all misses my original point though. At any point in the first half of the 20th century we had enough oil to last us for centuries at then-present day usage. Yet here we are.

Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by CaioAlonso on Monday March 28, 2022 @03:21PM (#30834468)
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by aidenn0 on Monday March 28, 2022 @05:00PM (#30835499)
Not quite the same; Jevons Paradox notes that increased efficiency of use is an effective reduction in cost. The fact that when you make something cheaper to use it gets used more is just simple supply and demand.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by arcticbull on Monday March 28, 2022 @01:40PM (#30833255)
Well, that's what it would take to make it renewable. Political will and what we have today is all it would take to make it viable. And potentially shifting the $0.5T in annual global fossil fuel subsidies to nuclear wouldn't hurt.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by KennyBlanken on Monday March 28, 2022 @01:40PM (#30833246)
Nuclear power has gone up in cost while wind and solar have plunged in cost. Solar panels cost 10% of what they did ten years ago.

Wind's currently cheapest, but solar will likely catch up pretty soon...

Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by Out_of_Characte on Monday March 28, 2022 @01:52PM (#30833409)
You still need a reliable power source, energy consumption isn't related to the wind speed. That'll limit the amount of energy solar/wind can replace.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by mixermachine on Monday March 28, 2022 @01:59PM (#30833496)
Nuclear has this problem too (in a lesser form though). Most reactors mainly run at 100%. Regulating them down takes quite some time and also wears down some materials inside.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by Retric on Monday March 28, 2022 @02:28PM (#30833845)
It’s mostly a cost problem, idling a reactor for 12 hours produces 1/2 the power per day at 95% of the cost. Aka your cost per kwh basically doubles.

France largely got around this by exporting power, but that obviously doesn’t scale if everyone tries to export power on the weekends nobody wants to import it.

Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by Teever on Monday March 28, 2022 @02:55PM (#30834177)
Throw the excess power into on demand carbon negative activities and call it a day.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by p1mrx on Monday March 28, 2022 @03:18PM (#30834435)
That only helps if your desalinator/electrolyzer/etc. has a low enough capital cost to let it sit idle most of the time.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by Bud on Monday March 28, 2022 @03:26PM (#30834533)
The word "throw" is doing a lot of work in this sentence, since said throwing is both complex and expensive.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by Retric on Monday March 28, 2022 @07:25PM (#30836832)
Finding something to use the power flexibly isn’t enough, they need to be willing to pay several times more than Solar for it or you aren’t fully offsetting costs.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by jccooper on Monday March 28, 2022 @03:37PM (#30834641)
Nuclear is fine with load following. Most plants run as baseload because it makes sense for them to do so, given the surrounding energy mixture and capital costs, etc, but it's not some sort of immutable law of the technology. Many existing designs have that capability even if it's not used much. They're not great for peak generation, but if you're price insensitive, or could lower the capital costs enough for it to make sense, they could do that too.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by Manuel_D on Monday March 28, 2022 @05:00PM (#30835507)
Regulating them down is done by more aggressively cooling the reactor. The thermal energy output is unchanged, but less of that thermal energy is transformed into electricity. This doesn't wear down any materials, but it does waste fuel. Grated, fuel is a tiny faction of nuclear's cost. Furthermore, the gap between peak and minimum electricity consumption isn't that large. It's usually 10-20%.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by tekknik on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @12:27AM (#30838762)
Which type of reactor are you talking about here? I’m not a nuclear expert, but the wonderful Chernobyl TV series doesn’t align with this. That reactor put out 3mw usually, peaked at 33kmw, and was idled down to 700kw using control rod insertion rather than more aggressive cooling.
Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by Manuel_D on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @01:49PM (#30846021)
Any reactor. This modulating is done with the cooling system, not the reactor itself. To clarify, the thermal output of the reactor remains unchanged, while aggressive cooling reduces the electrical output. It's deliberately reducing the efficiency of the heat engine to reduce electrical power output with the same thermal power output. That's why it's wasteful of fuel. Modulating the thermal output of the reactor is more efficient, but not all reactor designs can do this quickly.

The blast at Chernobyl was due to a positive void coefficient that meant over-heating led to a positive feedback loop (plus some other process failures that led to that initial overheating). Also those figures for the Chernobyl reactor were for thermal output, not electrical output. The figures are an order of magnitude off, the reactor would normally put out 3GW, not 3 MW and was idled down to 700MW for the test. 700 kW is, like, a beefy muscle car.

Re:Majority in Japan backs nuclear power for first time sinc... by tekknik on Friday April 01, 2022 @11:43AM (#30879384)
Got it, thanks for the explanation!