Even expert analysis isn't evidence. At its best, an expert can give you a sense of the range of possibilities, which might include things you never thought of. But actually knowing what's happening in a specific case requires evidence.

It seems like being clear about what you're doing (are you just discussing possibilities or trying to claim something specific) would go a long way in avoiding such misunderstandings.

(And I of course don't know which cases you're talking about, so I'm just talking about possibilities.)