>The main thing currently that no one seems concerned about is the reduction of grain production from Russia and Ukraine because of the war. This is going to have a global impact and will increase food scarcity that a 3 month individual supply can not do anything about.

This is the main thing that has gotten me worried. In 2010 there was a heatwave in Russia that affected the wheat harvest and in 2011 we had the Arab spring. There are an increasingly large number of failed states or states that are on the verge of tipping into that in that region of the world too. Lebanon's grain storage capacity was reduced to a month's supply after the Beirut explosion. Water tables are very stressed in Morocco which supplies the majority of the worlds rock phosphate which is the critical input into phosphate fertilizers which massively boost agricultural productivity beyond normal means. When you dig down into it it's clear the world is in a "food bubble" supported by over-pumping of water from aquifers, hydrocarbons, globalization.

The ripple effect the economics are going to have will be pretty far reaching.

Then you understand that an individual can not fix these problems on their own which is why I recommended joining folks in your local vicinity that are similarly concerned about these issues and then seeing what can be done at the local level to mitigate them collectively instead of individually.

Yes, I'm very much with you on that.

One thing the pandemic taught me was that when the disaster comes, it's going to be your local community that turns on you first. Given the mask hoarding/reselling, toilet paper hoarding, gasoline hoarding, store price gouging and general antisocial behavior that we saw during 2020, I have no doubt that it would be a mistake to rely on altruistic, cooperative, community action. When I lived in Florida, after every hurricane, you'd see dozens of guys driving around with 4 brand new generators in the back of their pickup trucks, looking to sell them to desperate homeowners for 10X their cost.

For every one person who participates in a helpful community disaster preparation program, there are 20 who will instead look for ways to profit from a disaster and screw everyone else.

> One thing the pandemic taught me was that when the disaster comes, it's going to be your local community that turns on you first.

Whereas folks in my neighbourhood all pitched in to do grocery runs for the old and infirm.

> … after every hurricane, you'd see dozens of guys driving around with 4 brand new generators in the back of their pickup trucks, looking to sell them to desperate homeowners for 10X their cost.

Those guys are doing good: they are taking generators to people who need them. You see only the price, not the fact that the person who pays that price thinks he is better off with a generator than with the money. And those higher prices incentivise other folks to bring in more generators, which means … everyone who needs a generator will eventually get one. That is how markets work!

People here made masks for each other, helped elderly and what not. I can totally see people sux in scarcity situation, but all in all, this pandemic was people trying to help and be helping.

>all in all, this pandemic was people trying to help and be helping.

Even here in South Australia where we were had tiny numbers (a few 10s of cases a day), the supermarket shelves were stripped bare of toilet paper, sanitizer, hand towels, food).

People suck

Weirdly, in Bendigo a bunch of Asian tour buses came up from Melbourne explicitly so they could raid the supermarkets. Crazy stuff.

yeah it turned into bizzaro world for a few months, which was especially weird since we were basically Covid free for the majority of the past 2 years.

I guess I am lucky, but there was no toilet paper shortage.

In a true apocalyptic scenario where life won’t go back to normal we’ll force bullets into those guys and steal their generators while they dry heave blood on the ground.

Careful what you wish for. The average techie is a lot less prepared for rule of law to go out the window than the kind of people you're deriding are.

Techies are far more valuable in the post apocalyptic world than you think. When the initial bloodshed subsides, people will want rudimentary communication apps and networks to get back to the old days. Only techies can build to those standards.

In many cases “techies” and “those guys” are the same people.

I largely expect this to be true. I also expect that with the passage of time there will be a decrease in population density to the point where an equilibrium is found between people and resources and behavior becomes more sociable again as that balance is restored. So, enough to get passed that initial period seems like a wise investment compared to being caught short. Will you survive the potential violence? I'd say that's stochastic, but you may as well take the chance.

Not sure why you’re getting downvoted but you’re right: people won’t just go away and die quietly. Maintaining a 24x7 guard over your supplies must be part of your prepper plans. Even then you’d better have the constitution to kill anyone trying to get your stuff. It’s not a pleasant thought and almost nobody is prepared to endure such a nightmare.

This is why prepping alone is impractical unless you’re just planning to live somewhere completely isolated from any possible humans.

I’ve always felt part of prepping should be to establish documents that details alliances and property rights with your neighbors and other preppers so when the government collapses you have a procedure to bring up a local rule of law and order very quickly.

Expecting government help instead of taking responsibility is not the proper way. If you are able to take care of yourself you take a strain off whatever limited resources are left to help those who can't help themselves. Be a resource not a drain.

By getting involved in the government and helping prepare for disasters is the very definition of taking responsibility for yourself and being a resource for those around you.

Ensuring government help for others instead of only looking out for yourself is still helpful.