Re:The Great Steepening
by jjoonathan on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @01:37PM
(#30781099)
> Buying a house is fighting the fed now.
Doesn't a tightening environment drive down prices (favoring the buyer today) and open the prospect of refinancing next time the fed chickens out (favoring the buyer tomorrow)?
"Oh, high prices, I have just the cure: debt!" is usually a sales gimmick, not something that favors the buyer. What am I missing?
Re:The Great Steepening
by adam_arthur on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @01:45PM
(#30781179)
The best time to buy is after transitioning from tightening to easing generally.
It's true that price will move inversely to rate (all else equal), but price effect lags the rate change.
If rates stay at 5% or above we can expect prices to likely start to slowly decline in many areas.
It took 5 years for prices to bottom in the 2000s. Housing is a slow moving market
Re:The Great Steepening
by jjoonathan on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @01:50PM
(#30781241)
Ah, got it, that makes sense. Thanks.
And the 10y is far below where it will likely settle. So 5-5.5% mortgage is pretty much a given within the next few months barring a sudden collapse in inflation
Buying a house is fighting the fed now. They are trying to quell inflation and will very likely start selling MBS into the market next month to push mortgages rates even higher.
Don't fight the fed works both ways. And don't even look at the inflation adjusted home price chart... Hint, they are far above the 2000s peak