It's probably less winner-takes-all than ground based internet. At scale, putting infrastructure into space is a much lower barrier to entry than putting a fiber line into every household.

The limiting factor will be spectrum allocations. You only have so much bandwidth per area, giving an advantage to those that either have more directional antennas or more spectrum available.

Fiber to the home doesn't have any technical barriers, but localized corruption creates massive barriers to entry. (It's much easier to do fiber to the home in rural areas than in US metros)

Satellite internet has the opposite problem. If it ends up winning it will be a testament to dysfunctional governments around the world.