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A comment on Statement from Poland on providing airplanes to Ukraine. Parent comment

Re:Statement from Poland on providing airplanes to Ukraine by stjohnswarts on Tuesday March 08, 2022 @06:34PM (#30608881)
He would have been -more- likely to invade Ukraine as Putin knows that Trump barely cares about the NATO countries, he certainly wouldn't have cared about Putin razing Ukraine to the ground. I will agree that nuclear war is certainly less likely if you let Putin do whatever he wants.
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Re:Statement from Poland on providing airplanes to Ukraine by pkt_nspktr on Tuesday March 08, 2022 @11:12PM (#30610859)
If that was -more- likely to occur under Trump than Biden, why did it not? Based on actual historical evidence, Putin is more likely to invade Ukraine when Biden is in office (both as VP and POTUS) than when Trump was, regardless of whatever nonsense Trump was tweeting.
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Re:Statement from Poland on providing airplanes to Ukraine by ceejayoz on Tuesday March 08, 2022 @11:47PM (#30611048)
Since we're wildly speculating on N=1 scenarios with no control group...

Perhaps the invasion was planned for a second term, and COVID threw a giant wrench in the works.

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Re:Statement from Poland on providing airplanes to Ukraine by pkt_nspktr on Wednesday March 09, 2022 @12:41AM (#30611282)
Will four data points work?

N=1, 2008. Russia invades/attacks Georgia[1]. US President: George W. Bush; US Vice President: Dick Cheney.

N=2, 2014. Russia annexes Crimea[2]. US President: Barack Obama; US Vice President: Joe Biden.

N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine. US President: Donald Trump; US Vice President: Mike Pence.

N=4, 2022. Russia invades Ukraine[3]. US President: Joe Biden; US Vice President: Kamala Harris.

Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, regardless of whether we liked Trump's manner of diplomacy or not. And Biden was in office during the annexation of Crimea, so he can be the "control group" for pre- and post-Trump policies toward Russia.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai...

-edited for readability.

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Re:Statement from Poland on providing airplanes to Ukraine by dragonwriter on Wednesday March 09, 2022 @12:54AM (#30611350)
> N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine

False; Russian forces were continuously involved in Ukraine (even outside of Crimea) in the Donbas war, with no significant, even transitorily successful, ceasefire until late 2020.

> Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism,

Since in fact that happened in four of the four last presidential terms, that doesn't work even if you ignore that the logic here is simply very weak correlation even if the premises were correct.

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