> I would say that Putin's chest thumping at other countries is just intended to make the western world feel relieved when only Ukraine gets conquered, but I feel that's coming from the same optimistic-rational place as the idea that there wasn't going to be a full scale invasion in the first place.

Yes and no: It's true for now, but it will turn out to have been optimistic when he takes the next one[1].

Wonder how long the West is going to go on falling for it? Until he dies of natural causes, at far too high an age[2], or well beyond -- when an equally Stalinesque / Hitleresque successor is firmly ensconced and keeps on doing it?

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[1]: And the next, and the next, and...

[2]: That is, anything above about fifty.