I was assuming it was just populist nonsense to buy some cheap support. He also passed a law about stronger pedophile sentencing.

This seems a much stronger signal that the war is going poorly for them than that supposed FSB leak.

But combining the two, he may need to take out some rivals who perceive him as weak and that it's time for them to make their move, and those people seem likely to have big bank accounts.

One man can not rule a nation by himself. When his followers are scared or worried enough, they might attempt mutiny.

One thing that I don't understand about military structures is that putin is not holding every gun on the ground. All these orders are carried by officers of various ranks, these should be the one to target in order to stop this crisis.

People on the inside perform an internal battle: between knowing that they are part of the evil deeds (war crimes, trials, executions after), being afraid of being murdered/purged by the regime in the meantime, and if it gets bad enough the balance tilts more toward being time to mutiny and get rid of the dictator before he kills us all. A lot of things have to line up to get enough of the apparatus together to remove someone like Putin.

Early into the Stalinification process, Putin's insiders will not turn on him, even when he starts to purge them. They'll hold out, hopeful that they're not next, scared, afraid to move; they'll tell themselves that they won't be next because they have been loyal, various rationalizations. You can target these insiders, it doesn't matter, they will not turn on him at this stage. A lot of people will have to die before we arrive at that juncture.

Putin's greatest single vulnerability is the FSB, they coup'd the Russian democracy (such that it was, being so embryonic) and installed him, they're among the best positioned to remove him. The question is, why should they. He's one of their own. The oligarchs could perhaps try purchasing his removal in conspiracy with the military or FSB, although it's very unlikely. The military can't be happy with its humiliation in Ukraine and the masses of dead soldiers, which will ultimately be for naught (Putin forced this outcome on them); and I would expect Putin to punish some prominent military leaders for the various failures, which never goes over well with the system broadly.

For those who would like to read more about staying in power as a dictator, or for that matter any kind of political leader, I found "The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics" [1] a good read on the topic.

Of note is the required number of supporters can be quite low when you have a government supported by resource extraction.

[1] https://www.amazon.ca/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Pol...

I didn't mean to morally pin the war on the intermediate military officers. But to bribe them in any way possible to run away, sabotage, slow down, isolate their batallion whatever..

Thanks, that's a great analysis how politics works in almost every group. The take is that if one wants a clean system once cannot give any powers to the govt, including the ability to tax, it's a slippery slope.

There was an offer of 1 million USD to anyone who kills him from some rich russian guy in UK.

I have a better idea - 1 billion USD + safe extraction from Russia to any place including closest ones + ie immediate US citizenship. This sum is nothing for the likes of Biden, Johnson (or Musk) and nothing compared to damage this war is doing every day .

There is no way that nobody he meets within next few months wouldn't turn for this, even a group of 10 guys would be OK for rest of their grandchildren's lives. The trick is to do it somehow unofficially, otherwise you are next on FSB hit list, probably with every member of family. It would make him extremely isolated, paranoid, and actually make mistakes and enemies deep inside his pyramid. Play his game by his rules, not this posh western endless talks and diplomacy which he ignores.

Quite sure that would be seen as an act of war from the US. And whoever replace Putin is likely to be as bad as him (or at least share the same fascist ideology) and would have control over the nukes.

One thing I said to friends while talking about Ukraine, is that Russia has always experienced revolutions while engaged in external conflict. In some cases it literally started from the troops.

Putin has thrown a dice, but he might get to rue the results.

Historically regimes that provide lavish rewards and extreme punishments are frighteningly stable until acted upon by an outside force. See Soviet Russia, Nazi Germany, Bathist Iraq etc.

Was there something mentioned about imprisonment?