Re:The downside of encouraging ‘the fight’ on the streets of...
by jillesvangurp on Saturday March 05, 2022 @08:03AM
(#30567174)
It's hopeless until it is not. I've been wrong at every turn in the lead-up to the invasion and after.
I did not believe Putin would invade. Then I did not believe he would invade the whole country. And then I believed he would succeed rapidly. And then I did not believe that Putin would start firing heavy artillery on cities. And when he did, I thought that would work for him. Wrong every time. He invaded. It got very brutal. And he got bogged down fighting a fight that he should have won a long time ago by now but clearly did not.
So, right now, I still see some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel for the Ukrainians.
My reasoning is that at this point anything that buys the Ukrainians time is a good thing. They have a few things going for them: the Russian army is obviously compensating for their poor coordination, preparation, and incompetence with massive brutality. Consequently, morale is probably very low and probably dropping rapidly in the Russian army at least among most soldiers. Their generals and officers are muppets. Their orders are clearly bullshit. And they are taking heavy casualties for a leader that seems to have completely lost it lately for a cause that is seemingly about attacking people living in a country where many of them may have friends and relatives. Not good.
Ranking officers probably don't believe in this war at this point, if they ever did. And their generals at this point are probably getting very concerned about who of them the finger is going to be pointed at by whom and what will happen to those people. Additionally, Putin will be dealing with some very serious domestic economic issues very soon. Body bags with dead Russians and weeping widows and mothers are not going to be helpful either. He'll be under a lot of pressure to fix things quickly and it is doubtful he can fix a lot.
Russians were happy to have him while he took care of them, took care of their pensions, kept up appearances, etc. But plunging a country into chaos is never a recipe for surviving if you are an autocratic leader.
In short, that's a recipe for a revolution. Add hordes of pissed off oligarchs recently divorced from their jets, foreign property, and bank accounts to the mix and you have a potent mix for that and a perfect storm for exactly that to happen. And of course the Russian mafia needs some access to international markets as well to function. This war is bad for business for everyone; including all the people that keep Putin in power. Who is this at this point exactly? A revolution would not unprecedented in Russia. Just ask Gorbachev, he's still around.
I might be wrong about the Russian's ability to get themselves out of this mess of course. So, a good strategy for the Ukrainians would be buying as much time as they can get themselves. Since they have nothing left to loose, a lot of them are probably not going to bother with alternate strategies regardless of what happens. Capitulation seems unlikely. Unlike the Russians, they are highly motivated and determined. And they seem to be digging in for a long fight. I'm not sure they'll even have to fight that long. Putin might not last more than a few weeks the way things are currently going. Right now the number one concern that probably keeps him up at night is wondering which of his friends will be the one to stick the proverbial knife in his back. Actually, this whole move to invade the Ukraine might be rooted in paranoia about exactly that. This is not a strong leader anymore but a weak leader that fears for his life that is acting erratically.
The west is not powerless. We have some powerful sticks and carrots. Those economic sanctions are clearly very worrying to Russians in all layers of society. And the carrot is that those could sanctions could be lifted. Also, Ukrainians are getting some supplies from the west and they are clearly helping to buy more time. Putin doesn't have an endless amount of time. His credibility and popularity are at an all time low at this point and dropping by the hour. The problem for Putin is that he has plenty of stick but no carrot. And those wielding the sticks might turn against him. He has very few good moves left.
The ultimate carrot for Putin could simply be a safe retirement in some country. Not a bad plan. Several dictators have done that before him. I think Russia even harbors a few. So, he'd be well familiar with that plan and probably has planned such a thing years ago.
Again, I might be wrong and I don't have a great track record predicting things lately.
I did not believe Putin would invade. Then I did not believe he would invade the whole country. And then I believed he would succeed rapidly. And then I did not believe that Putin would start firing heavy artillery on cities. And when he did, I thought that would work for him. Wrong every time. He invaded. It got very brutal. And he got bogged down fighting a fight that he should have won a long time ago by now but clearly did not.
So, right now, I still see some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel for the Ukrainians.
My reasoning is that at this point anything that buys the Ukrainians time is a good thing. They have a few things going for them: the Russian army is obviously compensating for their poor coordination, preparation, and incompetence with massive brutality. Consequently, morale is probably very low and probably dropping rapidly in the Russian army at least among most soldiers. Their generals and officers are muppets. Their orders are clearly bullshit. And they are taking heavy casualties for a leader that seems to have completely lost it lately for a cause that is seemingly about attacking people living in a country where many of them may have friends and relatives. Not good.
Ranking officers probably don't believe in this war at this point, if they ever did. And their generals at this point are probably getting very concerned about who of them the finger is going to be pointed at by whom and what will happen to those people. Additionally, Putin will be dealing with some very serious domestic economic issues very soon. Body bags with dead Russians and weeping widows and mothers are not going to be helpful either. He'll be under a lot of pressure to fix things quickly and it is doubtful he can fix a lot.
Russians were happy to have him while he took care of them, took care of their pensions, kept up appearances, etc. But plunging a country into chaos is never a recipe for surviving if you are an autocratic leader.
In short, that's a recipe for a revolution. Add hordes of pissed off oligarchs recently divorced from their jets, foreign property, and bank accounts to the mix and you have a potent mix for that and a perfect storm for exactly that to happen. And of course the Russian mafia needs some access to international markets as well to function. This war is bad for business for everyone; including all the people that keep Putin in power. Who is this at this point exactly? A revolution would not unprecedented in Russia. Just ask Gorbachev, he's still around.
I might be wrong about the Russian's ability to get themselves out of this mess of course. So, a good strategy for the Ukrainians would be buying as much time as they can get themselves. Since they have nothing left to loose, a lot of them are probably not going to bother with alternate strategies regardless of what happens. Capitulation seems unlikely. Unlike the Russians, they are highly motivated and determined. And they seem to be digging in for a long fight. I'm not sure they'll even have to fight that long. Putin might not last more than a few weeks the way things are currently going. Right now the number one concern that probably keeps him up at night is wondering which of his friends will be the one to stick the proverbial knife in his back. Actually, this whole move to invade the Ukraine might be rooted in paranoia about exactly that. This is not a strong leader anymore but a weak leader that fears for his life that is acting erratically.
The west is not powerless. We have some powerful sticks and carrots. Those economic sanctions are clearly very worrying to Russians in all layers of society. And the carrot is that those could sanctions could be lifted. Also, Ukrainians are getting some supplies from the west and they are clearly helping to buy more time. Putin doesn't have an endless amount of time. His credibility and popularity are at an all time low at this point and dropping by the hour. The problem for Putin is that he has plenty of stick but no carrot. And those wielding the sticks might turn against him. He has very few good moves left.
The ultimate carrot for Putin could simply be a safe retirement in some country. Not a bad plan. Several dictators have done that before him. I think Russia even harbors a few. So, he'd be well familiar with that plan and probably has planned such a thing years ago.
Again, I might be wrong and I don't have a great track record predicting things lately.