The working theory is that massive corruption and yes-manning has led to Russia’s armed forces being a paper tiger.

If someone at the top says “we need to restock 1000 additional cruise missiles”, then the person under that grifts a little and says “we need to stock 950 additional cruise missiles”, and you follow that down the chain, you might end up with 500 instead of 1000 missiles. Same would go for things like vehicle maintenance. And it might be more invisible too, like ordering cheap tires instead of quality one’s.

By all accounts, they are frequently running out of fuel. Which is the most basic, obvious, and also quite readily available in Russia. How bad can an invasion go if you run out of fuel on the way to your initial target?

I have heard rumors, that some troups just sold off fuel on the black market before the invasion started. Whether that was just corruption or planned sabotage, no one of course knows.

There's a lot of absurd things about the war.

A cruise missile frigate was also prevented from entering the Black Sea by Turkey.