It does matter. Putin can invade Finland and Sweden now, and NATO can’t do anything other than supply weapons. If Finland and Sweden are in NATO, article 5 is automatically triggered and NATO will have to respond militarily immediately.

You forget that these countries are in the EU which has it's own mutual defence clause.

Not really. It has an "assistance" clause which does not say anything about military assistance.

It was left intentionally vague.

The clause says "members must assist with all the means in their power" or similar wording.

Whatever lawyers decide that clause means, I think the odds of outright invasion of an EU member _not_ leading to open european/world war is basically zero

I didn't. EU mutual defense is loosely defined by lawyers. If EU wants to declare war on Russia, they need NATO and most importantly, Americans. I don't want to knock on Western Europe on military, but without Americans' command and control, as well as logistic support, I don't think EU can mount any substantial military troop movements quickly in respond to an invasion.

And that Putin probably won’t try invading anything for a while now.

I am not so sure.

The way Russia put in their lousy equipment and untrained staff (if all the reports are to be believed) then his better troops and weapons are not yet there / ready for other use.

Or... there aren't better troops and weapons?

Hear me out. Russia is corrupt to the core with leadership that's only focused on enriching themselves.

It wouldn't surprise me if their conventional military proved to be way less capable then they're presenting it to be.

Sure, they have enough smart people that are able to design advanced weaponry, but do they have the industrial capacity to actually build? And do they have the capability to maintain it? How about troop training?

They probably don’t. As with almost all modern dictatorships, the military is there to protect the elites from the general populace, and is not fit for much more purpose. Besides Russia doesn’t have to worry about external invaders, because they have their nuclear deterrent. So the state of their military makes perfect sense.

Can’t risk a military coup.

No one knows for sure. Also, if Putin survives this whole Ukraine mess, who's to say he won't try again in 5 years? The point being, the narrative of business is usual is gone. All the countries that are next to or depend on Russia can no longer count on money or appeasement.

Nordic and countries next to Russia have to rethink their strategy. Maybe they decide to wait and see the next strong man from Russia will be and negotiate with them. But PEACE based purely on the words of a mad man is precursor for war.

> Putin can invade Finland and Sweden now

I can understand that he was lied to, and/or he miscalculated the power of his own army. But at this point it should be clear even to him it's a complete mess and they are being ridiculed by the whole world - outdated equipment, weak morale, soldiers without food, no fuel, sinking tanks. Do they really want to be humiliated by the Nordics? I really doubt so.

My take is that Finland and Sweeden will wait a bit to see how the situation develops, and if Putin starts to bark about enlarging the invasion, they will join in a blink.

where do you get your information from? it seems as if you are severly misinformed

We (everyone) have a pretty good look on what is happening, and even propaganda can't hide that. This was designed to be a fast invasion. Everything is pointing into that, relying on the surrender of Ukraine's citizens and military. It failed and we can see consequences.

and where precisely is russia failing? did you see their advancements?

you recall how long it took to take Bagdad right? you really think Putin thought this will be over in a week?

come on.

They have rockets, hundreds of aircraft, thousands of tanks and yet the advancement is so slow. Their logistics have failed and there is clearly no proper communication. Well, eventually you win which such a force.

Take a note that US came from overseas, yet they had superior logistics. They also advanced hunderds of kilometers in week inside Irak, Russia is still quite stuck close to thr borders. They just got their fist major city.

"just got their first major city". after not even a week

also, did you notice that they rarely kill civilians? i am by no means trying to defend them, but I have the feeling (!) that this is on purpose. and this might slow down operations. for instance today, they agreed for ceasefire and a refugee corridor. that will again take days probably. We should not forget that Ukraine is the birthplace of Russian culture. Ukraine is essential to the identity of Russia. They won't just carpet bomb it and call it a day. If anything of the stuff that Putin and his professors have written is what they truly believe, then we can assume that Russia doesn't want to annihilate the Ukrainians.

lastly, ukraine is HUGE. its bigger than France. And tanks roll slowly. Still, Russia will very soon circle Kiew and then its a siege until Ukraine gives up. No matter how many weapons they get. No stuff will get in and out. Civilians will hopefully have left already so women and kids don't have to starve.

all of this is my own opinion and I might be totally wrong.