> If Putin flattens a major European city, the outrage in Europe will be huge.

Ukraine is not in NATO. And I'm afraid if NATO and EU have to choose between a direct military confrontation of nuclear-capable powers and a genocide of 40-million-and-dwidling Ukrainian population, they'd choose the latter as long as Putin keeps this contained in Ukraine.

Would it turn Russia into Greater North Korea? Absolutely. Would it cause outrage and grave concern? You bet. Would it make NATO to move in and stop it? Unlikely at the moment.

In 2022 outrage does not influence policies. You have it reversed.

In the US? Probably not.

But in Europe that outrage will also be from a place of fear: maybe Russia will do it to you, too. So it will be longer lasting and a more intense and probably a truer feeling. Not fake outrage.

We have not seen what the Germany Army is capable of since 80 years ago. Does Putin really want to find out what has changed since then?

The German Army isn't capable of much at the moment.

And even if it were, no NATO member will set foot in Ukraine while this war and the following insurgency are happening.

What will happen is, depending on how hard Putin pushes, the reaction will be just as strong. More attacks targeting civilians? More weapons sent to Ukraine. Harder sanctions, with actual teeth. I wouldn't be shocked if by next winter 60%+ of the gas supply for Western Europe will be covered from other vendors, more or less bankrupting Russia (a huge percentage of Russian exports are raw materials, primarily oil and gas).

> I wouldn't be shocked if by next winter 60%+ of the gas supply for Western Europe will be covered from other vendors, more or less bankrupting Russia

you will be shocked to discover that Russia is going to fuel China's economy instead [1]

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/gazprom-p...

Possible, but risky for China to do that. A dollar buying Chinese made goods, is a dollar China has to buy Russian oil products, is a dollar Russia has to pay soldiers and build more weapons to bomb whoever they're bombing. I'm in favor of global free trade, but not without limits. The U.N. Charter is more important. The non-violent multilateral institution of resolving disputes is too important. Anyone outside that arrangement is calling to past demons. And for what? What does China gain by being seen as funding Russia's war effort?

The Chinese are not kind masters.

CCP is at least sane and thinks long-term. They don't want nuclear war, at least. I'd honestly feel relieved if Xi were pulling Putin's puppet strings at this point.