Re:Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022?
by webmaven on Sunday February 27, 2022 @01:14AM
(#30485858)
A few too many known unknowns (and probably a lot of unknown unknowns) to estimate with any confidence, but certainly higher than it seemed a couple of weeks ago (which was effectively 0%).
My pessimistic take is that it is currently about 2%, or 1-in-50, which is far too high for comfort.
Re:Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022?
by smt88 on Sunday February 27, 2022 @12:49AM
(#30485752)
The US can certainly back down. They would much rather lose Ukraine (and perhaps even more of Europe) than start a nuclear war.
Also, "things will proceed to nuclear" means that you think Putin will initiate the end of human (and most plant) life on Earth.
I don't think the richest man alive, who seems to desire material possessions and power over almost anything else, would want the world to end completely. He could leave office now and have an incredibly pleasant life.
Re:Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022?
by simonblack on Sunday February 27, 2022 @04:28PM
(#30492692)
Also, "things will proceed to nuclear" means that you think Putin will initiate the end of human (and most plant) life on Earth.
Actually, I think the initiation will come from the US side. Read up on the Wolfowitz Doctrine. The US will not allow that they lose the 'Number One', 'Exceptional' crown and will do anything to prevent that.
Re:Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022?
by smt88 on Sunday February 27, 2022 @05:21PM
(#30493305)
A 30-year-old document written by someone of a completely different era (and political party) to the current administration has nothing to do with anything.
Joe Biden is not going to initiate nuclear strikes. Russia has automated nuclear weapons that would launch without human intervention, leading to the end of the world.
If Biden doesn't initiate nuclear strikes and Russia wins this war, the only thing lost would be Ukraine.
If Biden does initiate unclear strikes, the entire world would be lost.
Biden is not going to sacrifice all human life to save Ukraine.
Re:Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022?
by simonblack on Sunday February 27, 2022 @05:53PM
(#30493631)
A 30-year-old document written by someone of a completely different era (and political party) to the current administration has nothing to do with anything.
I hate to break this to you but the neocons are still well in control of the US. Wolfowitz is a neocon.
Re:Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022?
by smoyer on Saturday February 26, 2022 @09:40PM
(#30484814)
42
More seriously, you have an un-hinged dictator with nuclear weapons - when he loses, who knows what he'll do. A real egotarian would say "If I can't win, then everyone has to lose". The only upside is that there's one less dictator (wannabe?) with his finger on the nuclear button than there was last year.
Re:Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022?
by smoyer on Saturday February 26, 2022 @09:48PM
(#30484864)
The warnings issued by Putin to not interfere and the West's "drawing a line in the sand" reminds me a bit of the Cuban missile crisis (though it's Russia who's claiming a free Ukraine weakens their sovereignty. But going back further in time, we've seen that doing nothing (when Hitler invaded Poland) is not diplomacy but rather emboldened him that the world would stand-by and do nothing.
Re:Ask HN: What is the likelihood of nuclear war in 2022?
by fendy3002 on Saturday February 26, 2022 @10:36PM
(#30485155)
For WMD level nuclear, my guess is quite low. Other user have said in other thread that there are several instances of nuclear threats in cold war era that should be launched, but didn't because the risk is too great.
Talking about Russia, AFAIK only Putin that is cornered enough to want to use it (and his aides I guess). The world, AFAIK, signals that they won't have problem forgiving Russia if the current regime changes. So I guess it's higher for civil war / coup in Russia before nuclear solution.
I don't know with smaller tactical nuclear though (district size maybe).
My pessimistic take is that it is currently about 2%, or 1-in-50, which is far too high for comfort.
The US is confined by its Wolfowitz Doctrine, Russia is confined by its history of 25 million dead in WW2.
Neither is capable of backing down. Things will proceed to nuclear.
Also, "things will proceed to nuclear" means that you think Putin will initiate the end of human (and most plant) life on Earth.
I don't think the richest man alive, who seems to desire material possessions and power over almost anything else, would want the world to end completely. He could leave office now and have an incredibly pleasant life.
Actually, I think the initiation will come from the US side. Read up on the Wolfowitz Doctrine. The US will not allow that they lose the 'Number One', 'Exceptional' crown and will do anything to prevent that.
Joe Biden is not going to initiate nuclear strikes. Russia has automated nuclear weapons that would launch without human intervention, leading to the end of the world.
If Biden doesn't initiate nuclear strikes and Russia wins this war, the only thing lost would be Ukraine.
If Biden does initiate unclear strikes, the entire world would be lost.
Biden is not going to sacrifice all human life to save Ukraine.
Read up on mutually-assured destruction.
I hate to break this to you but the neocons are still well in control of the US. Wolfowitz is a neocon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Wolfowitz
Nuclear weapons are their most powerful when not used.
More seriously, you have an un-hinged dictator with nuclear weapons - when he loses, who knows what he'll do. A real egotarian would say "If I can't win, then everyone has to lose". The only upside is that there's one less dictator (wannabe?) with his finger on the nuclear button than there was last year.
Talking about Russia, AFAIK only Putin that is cornered enough to want to use it (and his aides I guess). The world, AFAIK, signals that they won't have problem forgiving Russia if the current regime changes. So I guess it's higher for civil war / coup in Russia before nuclear solution.
I don't know with smaller tactical nuclear though (district size maybe).