I see that Russia has carved out a nice straight line. A very thin line.

That line carries their supplies.

You're right that things move fast. Gas runs out fast too, when you're running your tanks 24/7. Sure would be a shame if Ukraine's air force blew up the fuel trucks that they're expecting to come refill them.

And you're also right that Ukraine may be losing badly. But that was the default assumption. Everything I've seen in the last day has made me rethink. If the Russians can't even knock out Ukraine's internet, can they really take and hold Kiev?

> That line carries their supplies.

Russia doesn't need this line to carry supplies along the border. They can just carry them on the other side of the border (through Russia or, if we're talking further west, through Belarus).

Kaboom: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2d2a9/ukrainian...

> Ukrainian troops defending Chernihiv region blew up 56 tanks of diesel fuel that were being transported by a Russian military convoy

Indeed. We're on the third day of the invasion now. I'm confused by the amount of people, including many in the media, saying that things are going poorly for Russia because they didn't capture the capital city in the first two days of the war.

At the very least, Russia does not yet have air superiority and seems to have made some huge tactical blunders around attacking the airports. They lost 2 IL-76 transports yesterday which seems indicative of things going off the rails.

> They lost 2 IL-76 transports yesterday

Inbound troop transports too, not cargo from what I read.

It all depends on what Putin told his cronies. If the story was that they would be welcomed with open arms and instead they're welcomed with live ammo, functional AA and anti-tank weapons then that is a serious setback already, if the story was that it would be over by Friday night because they'd have control of aiports, media and the capital then clearly they have failed.

Putin's credibility is what is at stake here, not the absolute speed of the invasion. The double crossing at the negotiation table last week had only a few hours of shelf life, that gave them an advantage but that has already been eroded. The supply lines are quite long and the roads leading South are littered with abandoned columns of Russian vehicles. Already Chechen troops have been put into play.

My guess is that even though in an absolute sense this is developing very fast that on a relative scale it failed on several key objectives and that those failures are starting to add up.

It's extremely fast and aggressive because it is desperate. Putin doesn't have any time and he knows it, the West was slow to formulate a response but it is getting there, sentiment is turning and before long there will be a different wind blowing.

Internal support for this war is already wavering - see the video of the Russian security council meeting -, it won't take much in terms of deviation from Putins plans as communicated to his lieutenants before his own position becomes untenable. And that can't come soon enough because at the moment that is the only way forward that is still left to us without major bloodshed.

I really hope it is true, that internal support is wavering.

I have a tendency to believe our western media's over expression of news stories that make it look like the Russian forces are having a hard time.

I can't place my finger on it (maybe I just am afraid of the worst) that we need to be told things are worse for the "enemy" than they really are to avoid sentiment that causes WW3. The spark has been lit in my eyes.

> I really hope it is true, that internal support is wavering.

Me too, here is the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI

> I have a tendency to believe our western media's over expression of news stories that make it look like the Russian forces are having a hard time.

Well, they are certainly not having an easy time, casualties are mounting, some troop transports have crashed, the most reliable estimates about casualties on the Russian side that I've seen are now approaching 1,000, which if true would be extremely high already. But wars aren't typically won or lost in a day and Russia has far more resources than the Ukraine has. But indirectly, whether Putin wants it or not he's already fighting the West.

> I can't place my finger on it (maybe I just am afraid of the worst) that we need to be told things are worse for the "enemy" than they really are to avoid sentiment that causes WW3.

What you and I are told doesn't really matter. What matters is:

(1) what happens in Putins inner circle

(2) what happens in the security council

(3) what happens in the Whitehouse

That's where the decisions are made. Ukraine is going to do what they can but they are only able to hold out for so long.

> The spark has been lit in my eyes.

You probably meant the fuse, but yes, it has been lit.

> I've been watching this, and frankly given the high number (>dozen) of verifiably false claims made by Ukraine

Would you be willing (for the education of myself at least) express some of the more egregious false claims? I am a layman in this stuff so I just go with what media has to say, so I’m curious what I a layman am likely misinformed about.