The average USPS rural route is 45 miles, well within the capability of even the lowest end EVs especially given the low average speeds and constant stop-and-go with regen braking.

Sure there are routes that would be unsuited for EV right now, but it should be closer to 90/10 than 10/90.

Probably a mix would make most sense. In shorter routes electric with capacity to charge during downtimes makes sense. For very long ones gas isn't bad option.

They are adopting a mix, looking to inject 5,000 EVs into their fleet by sometime next year.

USPS already has different vehicles for different routes. It seems like the best solution would be EVs in urban areas and gasoline for long routes (at least until EVs improve). That said, I'm not sure why the postal service needs unique vehicles. Using an existing vehicle platform seems like it would be significantly cheaper and lower risk. That's what postal services in other countries do. The same goes for delivery companies like DHL, FedEx, UPS, and Amazon.

Also I'm surprised by how –there's no other way to put this– stupid this program is. According to page 38 of the environmental impact statement[1], they're planning on using 94kWh battery packs for the EV version of these vans, giving an expected range of 70 miles. This makes no sense. Ford already makes an EV version of its Transit vans with 67kWh batteries and 100+ mile range. Moreover the environmental impact statement notes this on page 43! These vans can carry more cargo than the planned USPS vehicle and they can be bought for $47k retail today. Purchasing the vans would almost certainly be cheaper at such high volumes, saving billions of dollars compared to the Oshkosh contract.

Considering the amount of waste, my guess is that this program is a way to help out a defense contractor (Oshkosh).

1. https://uspsngdveis.com/documents/USPS%20NGDV%20Acquisitions...

re: manufacturing. They’re only looking at buying 150k trucks. Even Tesla (famously more valued than their output) has a run rate of over a million per year now. So I’m not thinking that’s really an issue.

The cost/time to bring up a production line for just these trucks doesn’t seem like it should be cheaper if their gas either. If anything, sharing a ‘skateboard’ with a delivery van or something would make it even easier.

Most rural delivery is handled by contractors who use their own vehicles, I believe.