Matlab's usage is down a bit since a peak at 2017, but over the last 20 years it's up over 300%, and it's done so by being a for-profit language. Mathworks is a billion dollar company, which is quite an achievement in the PL space in 2022.
Meanwhile C++ usage is up over the last couple years but the long term trend has been a steady decline over the last 20 years [1]. From 14% to a low of 4%, now back up to around 8%.
TIOBE is statistical noise. You would equally meaningfully cite your tea leaves, or crows flying overhead.
I mean, if TIOBE was really statistical noise as your claim, there wouldn't be clear trends in industry reflected in the data, like the rise of Python in the last few years. And yet we see it, so clearly it's measuring something.