You have a great go-get-'em attitude, but the issue isn't remotely similar to the question of whether or not to diet and exercise. It's more like, "Should I spend huge amounts of time and effort on diet and exercise in order to enter this bodybuilding competition, only to be disqualified at the last minute because I look too much like the competition judge's nephew?"

There is a bit of truth in it. Not necessarily the comparison to a diet, but still.

Becoming indignant & saying 'I'm out' is not useful. There's a potential snag here. It is a man made snag that's unfair, unreasonable or whatever. But that doesn't mean the opportunity isn't there. It's not really more of a reason not to develop then any other reason that isn't unfair: too hard, too much competition, etc. The only difference is emotional.

The difference is that it's unpredictable, based on Apple's whims. If they said "Hey, here is a list of apps we won't accept from third party developers because we consider them to be competitive," that would be one thing. But as it stands, we don't even know where the line in the sand is, because the line is based on Apple's best interests, not those of the developers. Dozens of developers have released apps that duplicate (and improve upon) the functionality of the built-in Notes app, but when someone writes an app for podcast streaming (which the iPhone does not already offer, but which I'm sure they're planning on adding eventually), Apple nixes it. It's not just difficult, it's demoralizing.

You hit it on the head. Players leave rigged markets once they get burned once or twice, and pretty soon the market freezes up altogether.

Withdrawing from iPhone app development is the rational choice. There are other things developers like the author can work on with similar payoffs, but more predictable risks.

Unpredictable? Yes. So is consumer demand.

It's not just difficult, it's demoralizing.

That's my point. On the rational front, it's not different to 1000 other variables. On the emotional one, it's a lot worse.

I would just win the bodybuilding competition. Pretty simple.

This person already produced a well-known iPhone app.

Have you read past the first paragraph though? His point is that Apple's arbirtary rejection of some applications undermines confidence and will lead to there being no serious investment undertaken by third party developer. If you don't control the outcome you might as well not start the work.

just because someone could work around apple's restrictive rules, that doesn't mean that iphone apps are the best use of a developer's time.

it looked like a pretty good deal to me at first. possibly as big of a gold rush as the original dos days. given all the hassles and rules, i'm not nearly so enthusiastic as i once was.