2-4x reduction doesn't mean anything unless you know the original risk probability. For a low 30s person that isn't obese... The original risk is already probably a tiny number. It's like saying because an anti shark ointment that makes you break out in itchy rashes reduces your risk of getting attacked by a shark by 2-4x, therefore everyone at the beach should use it.

Buying 4 lotto tickets quadruples your chance of winning.

I'm 50. The original risk, while surely a tiny number, looks rather different to me than it likely does to you.

It's "quite different" but still a tiny number even at 50: 0.4 deaths / 100k per week for the entire 50-64 age group (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-s...): that translates to .02% chance of death per year from COVID while vaccinated at all. To contrast, overall mortality rate for the 45-54 age group per year in the US is just under 400 / 100k = 0.4% (page 27 of https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-08-508.pdf).

Right, so that potentially 4x increase from skipping the booster takes it to 0.08% total mortality risk, which is 20% of my total overall risk.

You're saying you don't think trading vaccine side effects for a 20% lower risk of death is a good trade? I mean, this seems like a no brainer to me. Are you really saying this is a bad choice?

It's .02% -> .005%, not .08 -> .02. In other words, a few days of life expectancy. I certainly understand your decision, and I made the same decision, but I can also understand reaching an alternative decision about a booster (especially for those younger than you, or those who had worse reactions to the initial vaccine), where the discomfort and hassle might not be worth the small increase in life expectancy.

You also can't fairly compare vaccinated omicron cases + vaccination vs vaccinated omicron cases.

The proper comparison is vaccinated omicron cases + vaccination vs unvaccinated covid.