The first derivative of food supply disruption is clearly positive. The exact value of the second is debatable, but I feel confident saying it is at least not clearly substantially negative. Slightly negative at best and I can't give a lot of evidence for that.

The sum total of that disruption has not yet burned through our buffer, though it has caused a noticeable rise in prices. However, it is not wise to wait for our buffer to be entirely gone before being willing to identify the problem.