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A comment on What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity. Parent comment

Re:What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity by harshreality on Thursday February 03, 2022 @06:28PM (#30200541)
90% sounded high; I found an article saying as of today 79% of people in France have had both of the initial shots (not sure how they figure single-dose vaccines like J&J and Oxford), and 80% had 1. [1]

Let's say it's 80%. 80/20. Primary vax status probably hasn't changed too dramatically in 1 month.

p(hospitalized | vaxxed) = p(vaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(vaxxed)

= 0.6 * p(hospitalized) / 0.80

= 0.75 * p(hospitalized)

---

p (hospitalized | unvaxxed) = p (unvaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(unvaxxed)

= 0.4 * p(hospitalized) / 0.2

= 2 * p(hospitalized)

Vaccination gives a 2.67x reduction in hospitalizations (against omicron which all the anti-vaxxers are saying the vaccines don't do anything against).

With your 90% figure, it becomes 2/3 instead of 3/4 and 4 instead of 2, which is 6x, confirming what the other replier got.

[1] https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/23973...

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Re:What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity by oezi on Thursday February 03, 2022 @07:23PM (#30201052)
In the most relevant age group 60+ the reduction in hospitalizations is 83% for double vaxxed and 95% for boostered in Germany according to latest figures:

Page 28 on vaccine efficacy.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...

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Re:What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity by renaudg on Thursday February 03, 2022 @07:24PM (#30201057)
93% of the eligible have had two doses in France, or 78% of the population : https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/
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Re:What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity by harshreality on Friday February 04, 2022 @05:26AM (#30205019)
Unless we can get stats for who's eligible or not eligible for the vaccine when they're hospitalized for COVID-19, what can be done with that extra distinction?

Same with age and risk-factor cohorts. We could repeat the probability calculation for each cohort if we could collect those data, but it would probably make the vaccine even more effective: Presumably, more higher-risk people are double/triple/quad vaxxed at this point, so whatever rate they show up to the hospital is higher than what the average healthier person could expect.

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Re:What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity by oreilles on Saturday February 05, 2022 @01:31PM (#30224111)
We know that for a long time. I'm just saying that despite having 93% of the adult population vaccinated (-18 yo do not need the vaccine pass to go anywhere) , and our ICU beds occupation rate being only 70% at the highest omicron peak, our politicians still refuse to call it an end.

"Being done" with covid is only a political decision, and no percentage appears to be high enough for them.

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