90% sounded high; I found an article saying as of today 79% of people in France have had both of the initial shots (not sure how they figure single-dose vaccines like J&J and Oxford), and 80% had 1. [1]

Let's say it's 80%. 80/20. Primary vax status probably hasn't changed too dramatically in 1 month.

p(hospitalized | vaxxed) = p(vaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(vaxxed)

= 0.6 * p(hospitalized) / 0.80

= 0.75 * p(hospitalized)

---

p (hospitalized | unvaxxed) = p (unvaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(unvaxxed)

= 0.4 * p(hospitalized) / 0.2

= 2 * p(hospitalized)

Vaccination gives a 2.67x reduction in hospitalizations (against omicron which all the anti-vaxxers are saying the vaccines don't do anything against).

With your 90% figure, it becomes 2/3 instead of 3/4 and 4 instead of 2, which is 6x, confirming what the other replier got.

[1] https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/23973...

In the most relevant age group 60+ the reduction in hospitalizations is 83% for double vaxxed and 95% for boostered in Germany according to latest figures:

Page 28 on vaccine efficacy.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...

93% of the eligible have had two doses in France, or 78% of the population : https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/

Unless we can get stats for who's eligible or not eligible for the vaccine when they're hospitalized for COVID-19, what can be done with that extra distinction?

Same with age and risk-factor cohorts. We could repeat the probability calculation for each cohort if we could collect those data, but it would probably make the vaccine even more effective: Presumably, more higher-risk people are double/triple/quad vaxxed at this point, so whatever rate they show up to the hospital is higher than what the average healthier person could expect.

We know that for a long time. I'm just saying that despite having 93% of the adult population vaccinated (-18 yo do not need the vaccine pass to go anywhere) , and our ICU beds occupation rate being only 70% at the highest omicron peak, our politicians still refuse to call it an end.

"Being done" with covid is only a political decision, and no percentage appears to be high enough for them.

This is true but slightly misleading : if 100% of the population was vaccinated, 100% of hospitalizations would be amongst vaccinated people.

They would be a much smaller and manageable number, and on average much older/vulnerable than they are now (vaccination basically lowers your risk to that of someone 20-30 years younger)

More figures from France : the unvaccinated 8% account for 39% of hospitalizations, 54% of intensive care admissions, 46% of Covid deaths.

This is a hugely outsized effect, so there's still enormous potential for drastically improving the situation in hospitals with just a few more percentage points of vaccinated people.

Current numbers are already manageable. At the Omicron wave peak, total ICU beds are 70% full. And recent (official) data shown that 30% of all COVID positive hospitalizations were actually unrelated to COVID, that number being as high as 50% for 0-49 age group. Yet our politicians refuse to drop restrictions, they even doubled down by making vaccination mandatory to go anywhere, when a negative test used to be enough.

Unless my math is wrong, by your own numbers, unvaccinated French adults are 6x more likely to be hospitalised than unvaccinated adults.

Doh! meant to say "vaccinated adults" at the end. (saw this too late to edit).

Absolutely, but this is in no way related to whether we decide this is "the end" or not.

I said "if we had 100% of the population vaccinated we'd be done" and I meant it.

I didn't mean 90%.

If 5% of the population is susceptible that's enough to overload the hospital system during a wave. It really doesn't take much with this virus.

And Delta's transmissibility really destroyed the destroyed the notion of herd immunity. The correct number should be 100% vaccinated.

And its still 90% unvaccinated people filling up the hospitals, even though you're highly vaccinated.

Once you hit the hospital percentages matching the population percentages then the "natural immunity" enthusiasts will have finally all basically caught it sufficiently to gain immunity the hard way and it'll be done.

This sounds like Simpson paradox again. It happened in Israel.

People with weakened immune systems and other health issues are more likely to be vaccinated. But they're less likely to have a robust immune response to the vaccine.