Having been caught and done jail time I think that the view that "only the dumb ones get caught" is wrong (OK, I would say that): intelligence and getting caught are mostly orthogonal and I met a, very, small number of extremely bright people in jail. The difficulty in executing many types of crimes and evading detection is that it is a probabilistic process: a criminal activity may be composed of many actors with differing motivations and competencies, in a hostile environment with unknown features and requiring multiple contingent steps. Any mistep in this chain can cause the failure of the project and, however clever the player, the mistep can be difficult to forecast and non-deterministic.