I find it a great resource to cross-check the misinformation of the mainstream media. For example, I challenge anybody to look at the 0-14 and 14-44 graphs and tell me when covid actually occurred.
Note that excess is not defined as a deviation from a typical year, but as a deviation from a typical year when no diseases are circulating. The goal of the euromomo website is to detect things like flu outbreaks, so the number of excess deaths is usually greater than 0, capturing the flu, heat waves, and presumably other disasters.
> Note that excess is not defined as a deviation from a typical year, but as a deviation from a typical year when no diseases are circulating.
Data is deseasonalized, which does not mean what you wrote.
You are correct that I oversimplified a complex situation. https://euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/ describes their method, especially section "Hypothesis".
Their model includes a sinusoidal seasonal component, as you noted. However, what I said is also true. From the Hypothesis section, third bullet:
"Parts of Spring and Autumn are less likely to be influenced by additional processes leading to excess deaths and the main pattern of mortality can therefore be modelling using only those periods, resulting in a baseline being the number of deaths expected when no particular process increases mortality."
As is clear from the bullet that precedes the text that I quoted, "processes leading to excess deaths" means winter infections and summer heat waves. So my description, while incomplete, is hopefully not too misleading. For completeness, I should mention that they also adjust for population growth. (You can't just do 2020-avg(2015-2019) because the total population is different.)
Stepping back from the details for a minute: this is a 15-year long joint effort of public health authorities in Europe, with the explicit goal "to design a routine public health mortality monitoring system aimed at detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries." In terms of data analysis, their model is very simple, comprising a constant, a linear trend term for population growth, and a sine-wave term for non-flu seasonality. Do you really think that they would be so incompetent as to use a model that explicitly removes the flu, which is the very effect that they are trying to capture? Give them some credit, they know what they are doing.
Just to be clear, you're saying that the reason we've seen hundreds of thousands of excess deaths last year is because of drugs, suicides, and child abuse.
If people want to explore some "crude" (CDC's word) data by age group. Cherry-picking some data, there were 10-15 times more drug overdoses then covid deaths in 2020 (Q2-3) for 25-34. Similar ratios for 15-24. And I'm sure it'll be the exact opposite for higher age groups or if you focused on people with comorbidities. Yet these demographics are grouped together without any nuance when it comes to mandates. Note this is pre-vaccine and pre-delta so not really representative of current state of things.
In other words, excess death counts would account for overdose deaths because they are expected. They wouldn't be considered "excess" deaths.
The numbers I have seen for excess deaths pretty closely match COVID death numbers as counted from death certificates. So you have two unconnected sources matching up pretty closely. I'd say there is a good chance the near million COVID deaths number we are looking at is pretty close.
What is the age breakdown of these excess deaths? If the distribution doesn't mirror the age distribution of known COVID deaths, that's an immediate indicator that it's factoring in multiple sources.
Drug overdoses, attempted suicides and actual suicides are way up, for example. Drug abuse is way up. Child abuse is way up.
I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm simply saying that you can't know that you are right without a careful analysis of the data. It should be noted that the "excess deaths are way up" is also used as a tool of people claiming that the vaccines are killing people as well.
Again, I want to emphasize, I don't know the detailed data behind the excess deaths. COVID is certainly one factor, but what percentage does it constitute? I'm not claiming I know, but you are. That's the difference.
You are also ignoring the studies out of Israel (sample size of 2.5 million people), Qatar (sample size of 400K people), the recent CDC study in other replies to your comment, etc. It's a long list of studies that show that prior infection is a superior, more durable form of immunity to Delta than vaccine-only populations.
Additionally, it's rather absurd to use hospitalizations as a metric for the general population. I'm sure you are extremely aware that the bulk of unvaccinated people getting hospitalized are not young or healthy. "Some unvaccinated people" is also a statement ignoring the shocking prevalence of prior infection in seroprevalence studies, which isn't really shocking when considering a respiratory virus that has an R0 that has been at minimum 3 in the beginning with the original variant, and is now 6-7 with omicron.
The data has changed, but many people's opinions have remained fixed. I don't understand what motivates this, but it's become tiresome as it continues to drive policies that are intuitively foolish and violate centuries of immunological knowledge.