Have a read about the world’s worst market timer: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...

In short: there’s never been a 20 year period where the broad-based US large-cap equities index have lost money. The future isn’t guaranteed, but I’m betting on that record to continue.

The linked article only looks at the time period of the last 50 years. If you believe in big cycles (like covered in Ray Dalio’s “The Changing World Order”), expand that perspective to several hundred years and market returns don’t look quite as guaranteed over a given 20 year period. I’m still formulating my own thesis but it’s a good read if you are into such things.

I mean if there's a big change like that, then we are all kinds of screwed anyway.

> there’s never been a 20 year period where the broad-based US large-cap equities index have lost money.

Definitely happened in Japan and Europe. France and UK are only just exceeding the large cap index price from 1999 - and likely to drop back down again.

I see this linked all the time.

Y’know, time in the market beats timing the market

Does any have a rebuttal?

There's a 15% off sale on stocks. If you are buying stocks in order to invest for the long term, that should make you very happy. You should be learning that stock market corrections or bear markets are normal and nothing to worry about.

If you invested money in stocks that you need in the short term, you are beginning to learn why you don't do that.

> There's a 15% off sale on stocks

15% off from what? 15% off the maximum value achieved during a period of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus?

Given the fed reversal, it's looking pretty clear that stocks will fall quite a bit further. Buying equities now is tantamount to fighting the fed.

Timing the market never works, so if you sit out you won't know when to get back in, but the entity with the power to dramatically influence asset prices has broadcast their intentions and is about to undertake actions which will significantly devalue equities over the next 6-12 months.

>> Given the fed reversal, it's looking pretty clear that stocks will fall quite a bit further

It sounds like you have information that isn't already priced into the market. That's awesome. You can get rich.

Yes I appreciate the snark and understand what I'm saying is going to be like water off a duck's back to the average boglehead.

It's being priced in over time. The market doesn't immediately price in future events. We've only rolled back the last 2-4 months of gains so far.

I've already reacted accordingly. There's a lucky Boglehead or stonks investor who was happy to catch the falling knife when I sold. I feel sorry for them but what can you do? People want to believe simple market themes and not look at the driving forces. I'll go back to buy and hold in 6-12 months depending on the fed.

What percentage of your portfolio did you sell?

About half, although that was mostly RSUs from my high growth tech job which was sure to get hammered by the rate hikes(and boy has it been hammered).

I'd sell more but a lot of it was already in dividend paying stocks like Kraft Heinz which are doing ok and should weather the storm a bit better.

> You should be learning that stock market corrections or bear markets are normal and nothing to worry about.

People are increasingly holding their money in stocks even close to when they need it (e.g. retirement) because rates for safer bonds have been mostly below inflation. Of course the market can go down, if you get really unlucky, it can take a few decades to recover, but that hasn't happened for just short of a hundred years now (as long as since the last major pandemic).

The sp500 is ~6% off its high, not 15%.

I was using the Russell 2000.

Some days Mr. Market is euphoric will buy at any price; some days Mr. Market is depressed and thinks the world is end and sells for a song; most days Mr. Market is moderately optimistic. But what Mr. Market is willing to pay for your portfolio and what its actual value is are not the same thing. Focusing on the actual value is the important thing (note that the actual value can only be estimated). This pairs well with a long-term outlook. Warren Buffet says "my favorite holding period is forever".

If the swings bother you, investing in companies with dividends has the additional upside that they generally pay dividends regardless of the stock price.

Benjamin Graham is the best

Comment I read on here a year or so ago stuck with me. "time in the market beats timing the market"

Latest market moves changed my net worth by 3.5% (from peak). In 12 years of investing I have never had less money than I put in.

Granted cherry picking any specific time period is not very predictive.

The only two prices that matter are the price you buy at and the price you sell at. Everything in between might as well have never happened.

Stick to VTI and VXUS? VTI is up 12.4% the last year and flat 0% since October. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

The S&P 500 is also flat since October and up 16.3% in the last year. VXUS is down in the last year. If you want a simple strategy buy into an S&P 500 index fund and don't worry until you're closer to retirement.

So less than 2 years? Who cares? Don’t be like the folks who sold off in 2008.