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A comment on The QT Timebomb. Parent comment

Re:The QT Timebomb by rufus_foreman on Thursday January 20, 2022 @08:48AM (#30008814)
The US labor force participation rate does not swing by 10's of percentage points. During the pandemic it fell from a little over 63% to a little over 60%. Over the long term, it was above 58% in the 1950's and topped out around 67% in the early 2000's.

Median net worth in the US is $120,000, which includes home equity. You can't retire early on that.

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Re:The QT Timebomb by naveen99 on Thursday January 20, 2022 @03:14PM (#30014113)
Men have gone from 87% to 67%, while women have gone from 33% to 57% since 1950 [1].

Mean net worth in the us is $1 million by 50years of age. A lot of people could retire 10 years earlier if they really wanted to.

I agree that these numbers don’t turn on a dime, but people can definitely change their effort dedicated to labor.

1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002

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Re:The QT Timebomb by rufus_foreman on Thursday January 20, 2022 @05:49PM (#30016443)
The largest football stadium in the US holds around 108,000 people. If Bill Gates and 107,999 minimum wage workers attend a game there, the mean net worth is over 1.2 million dollars. How many of them are retiring at 50?

Median net worth is what you want here not mean, right? Median net worth at age 50 is around $150,000, also, I think, including home equity. Still not going to be retiring early.

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Re:The QT Timebomb by naveen99 on Friday January 21, 2022 @11:02AM (#30025357)
People around the world regularly retire with far less than $150k.

Also the median us worker earns over 2 million dollars in their lifetime. Most chose to spend it as they earn it. A lot more of them could certainly reduce their consumption if they really wanted to. Of course a lot of them self selected into the us, and like working harder than the people they left behind.

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Re:The QT Timebomb by rufus_foreman on Friday January 21, 2022 @08:24PM (#30032166)
If you look at what financial advisors suggest, it is to take around 4% of your net worth per year as income. Some suggest a little more, some a little less, but that's the ballpark.

4% of $150k is 500 dollars a month. Would you retire on that? I wouldn't. Could you retire on that?

I know a guy who is retired and gets $600 a month Social Security. His heat is out right now, his furnace died. It's single digit temps right now, he's got space heaters going. He's trying to get the furnace fixed, if it has to be replaced, it's going to be $15k.

How is that going to happen? Me and his family probably, we've got him, but for people that don't have that?

No, people in the US don't retire early with $150k unless there is no other reasonable choice.

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