In simplistic terms you look for and keep and eye on macro trends. Extropaliting those trends out let’s you pitch and position ideas to ride those trends.

Musk saw long range price drops around battery production costs before he then get involved in Tesla. The underlying story and macro dynamics then help build confidence in the idea and also help the idea ‘ride the way’ if it were.

Ask yourself what macro trends apply here? The more certain the effect the more bankable it is to jump onto.

Of course a million other factors determine your eventual success.