it is my vague impression from history that in real yet slow-moving crisis, those that are able to command and control high-value resources do in fact continue to thrive while others fail in increasing numbers. This works, until it doesn't, to make a cute phrase, because in dynamic systems, either the system re-stabilizes in a new and different composition, or there is sudden, increased failure.

If I understood you correctly, you're describing the efficiency-resilience problem: A system that is efficient is highly specialised for their environment, and thus susceptible to failure if the environment changes; a system that is resilient will not be as efficient, but can adapt to a changing environment.

This seems to apply to all kinds of things - people, organisations, software, religions.

I guess as often in live, balance is important here :)

What does this say about economics and supply chain failures during a pandemic? I think you’re on to something.

True, and you might be interested in Peter Turchin's "Ages of Discord" for a more in-depth investigation into how and why that happens.