> then you conclude that most unvaccinated people will eventually get the variant that kills them.

I think this makes three large assumptions:

  1. That natural infection doesn't result in durable immunity. This appears to be, unquestionably, not true [1].

  2. Those that are unvaccinated will not get a natural infection. This is exceedingly unlikely, assuming they're living normal lives.

  3. Vaccines will be constantly updated. This appears to be true, with a large time delay (see omicron vaccine being worked on now).

1: https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-on...