You’re at a 30x (minimum) increased risk, as well as running a 0.5-2% chance of dying depending on your state of health. If you’re less than 18, you have a higher risk of type 1 OR type 2 diabetes. Anyone who willingly runs that risk in the light of a (let’s face it, extremely safe) alternative is making some sort of strange calculus that is not in any way rational

Source for 30x risk of autoimmune disorder?

And no, the floor of fatality is not 0.5%, you’re off by an order of magnitude (too high) at least.

And source for risk of diabetes.

You’re throwing a lot of “facts” around that don’t seem to be true.

I am unfortunately off by a long way on myocarditis, the reported rates are 5-6x. I was confused, my apologies. [1, 2].

The diabetes link is 3. After posting it in another post I was directed to some useful criticism.

My numbers are IFR rates in a pre-vaccinated world not controlling for age. I think you’ll have to refine your counter claim on mortality, certainly it is lower in children and young adults, but CFR from early in the pandemic (and I accept poor correlation between incidence and reported cases) was scarily high for young adults before we knew how to treat it.

1. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133462-800-myocardi...

2. https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021...

3. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e2.htm?s_cid=mm...

Nearly 0.2% of the US has died of COVID, so he can’t be that far off on his estimate, not knowing the age of yourself or other readers.

He said the lower bound was 0.5%.

So as a healthy 30 year you’re saying my risk of death is 0.5%?

And note the CDC said they’ll be providing data on who “died with covid” versus who “died from covid”.

Yeah, 0.5% might be a plausible lower estimate for his statement of an average member of the US population, but is probably a bit low. That assumes that 50% of the US population already got COVID, 0% got vaccinated, and none of them get COVID again. What we actually know is that re-infection with omicron is fairly common, that there are still many (unvaccinated) people have not yet ever been infected, and that the majority of the US is vaccinated.

So, I can't say your risk, since you didn't mention if you are vaccinated. Being vaccinated is statistically the best way to reduce the risk of death or other severe long-term health issues (other than getting younger) relative to your baseline risk, largely independent of age (the trials for very young children are still on-going). My sources for this are talking to doctors and reading the official reports.

Unless you're planning to isolate at home indefinitely or live somewhere very remote you are pretty much guaranteed to be exposed to covid at some point. A good proportion of my friends have already had it twice. Consider that Omicron is more infectious than the common cold and how many colds you've had in your life.

The main risk factor in whether you develop an auto-immune disorder (other than the specifics of your own body and immune system which you can't do much about) seems to be the severity of the infection. You can still get these issues with a mild infection, but it's much less likely. And a vaccine pretty much is just a very mild infection with an engineered variant that can't reproduce, which then also reduces the severity if you later catch it. So intuitively it would seem like a pretty good bet. And as others have pointed out the statistics support that this is also true in practice.

Sure, I might be exposed in the next few years, but that variant may be very different than current ones.