I am unfortunately off by a long way on myocarditis, the reported rates are 5-6x. I was confused, my apologies. [1, 2].

The diabetes link is 3. After posting it in another post I was directed to some useful criticism.

My numbers are IFR rates in a pre-vaccinated world not controlling for age. I think you’ll have to refine your counter claim on mortality, certainly it is lower in children and young adults, but CFR from early in the pandemic (and I accept poor correlation between incidence and reported cases) was scarily high for young adults before we knew how to treat it.

1. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133462-800-myocardi...

2. https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021...

3. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e2.htm?s_cid=mm...

Nearly 0.2% of the US has died of COVID, so he can’t be that far off on his estimate, not knowing the age of yourself or other readers.

He said the lower bound was 0.5%.

So as a healthy 30 year you’re saying my risk of death is 0.5%?

And note the CDC said they’ll be providing data on who “died with covid” versus who “died from covid”.

Yeah, 0.5% might be a plausible lower estimate for his statement of an average member of the US population, but is probably a bit low. That assumes that 50% of the US population already got COVID, 0% got vaccinated, and none of them get COVID again. What we actually know is that re-infection with omicron is fairly common, that there are still many (unvaccinated) people have not yet ever been infected, and that the majority of the US is vaccinated.

So, I can't say your risk, since you didn't mention if you are vaccinated. Being vaccinated is statistically the best way to reduce the risk of death or other severe long-term health issues (other than getting younger) relative to your baseline risk, largely independent of age (the trials for very young children are still on-going). My sources for this are talking to doctors and reading the official reports.