Re:I am a New York City public high school student. The situ...
by fourseventy on Saturday January 08, 2022 @06:44PM
(#29857906)
Ok. this is from wsj.com "Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-savi...
Pretty close to my back of the napkin calculations.
Re:I am a New York City public high school student. The situ...
by justin66 on Saturday January 08, 2022 @07:36PM
(#29858418)
> “Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu."
Like Constable Bob, people underestimate influenza at their own peril.
More to the point, if the numbers indicate lethality comparable to a bad strain of influenza and transmissibility comparable to measles, we’re in a very bad situation.
Even before all the data is in, the number of hospitalizations we’re seeing alone signifies a bad situation.
Re:I am a New York City public high school student. The situ...
by gpm on Saturday January 08, 2022 @07:14PM
(#29858222)
I have no real problems with imagining that omicron's IFR is around that, it's a reasonable number. I just have severe problems with the way you reached it, it's pure coincidence that you reached something likely in the right order of magnitude.
Your article is in the opinion section, not written by any sort of doctor but some sort sort of investor (and incidentally substantial republican donor), that's not a source I would take seriously... Author's wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Arnott
Re:I am a New York City public high school student. The situ...
by odonnellryan on Saturday January 08, 2022 @07:06PM
(#29858120)
Way more people will get omicron than the flu.
Re:I am a New York City public high school student. The situ...
by onlyrealcuzzo on Saturday January 08, 2022 @07:20PM
(#29858277)
You can look up actual Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for Omicron: https://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/omicron-and-wani...
Your interpretation of the data is also just flat out wrong. You can't divide cases from today by deaths from today and get a case mortality rate, because deaths lag cases very significantly (2-8 weeks was a number studies were showing early on, not sure if there's a more accurate one since). A month prior to the latest day with a deaths number (01/04) the 7 day rolling average of cases in NYC was 2404 (data from my link above). That's also an inappropriate number to use, given that the recent giant spike in cases means that a disproportionate number of deaths will be from relatively recent cases, but it serves to demonstrate the point about your derivation being completely inappropriate.
A 0.1% mortality rate is also really bad if you're talking about students, but we're not, the data your citing is for the entire population... for the entire population it's just bad.