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Re:Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean by alecst on Saturday January 08, 2022 @12:26AM (#29848890)
Or think about it in reverse. While you’re blindfolded the host opens 99/100 doors. While you’re still blindfolded he then gives you a door to choose from one of those 100. If you pick a different door than the one closed door, fine. If you pick the same door as the host, the host will choose at random a different door to close.

Now you’ve done all this and taken off your blindfold. If you guessed any door but the closed one, you chose wrong. The host asks you what you would like to do — stay with your choice or switch. So do you switch?

I actually meant to respond to the person below you who said that this explanation was bullshit but I’ll just leave this here.

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