Re:Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean
by HWR_14 on Friday January 07, 2022 @06:55PM
(#29846711)
> you change your choice your odds of winning go up from 1/3 to 2/3 which to me makes intuitive sense
Well, my guess is that's because you've fixed your intuitions either by prior exposure to the problem or education. Certainly I think it's intuitive - now. The point is most people's intuitions think it changes from 1/3 to 1/2, regardless of whether you switch or not.
But hey, maybe Bayesian inference is intuitive to you without any math education.
Meanwhile, when this was published in 1990 and thousands of people (10% with PhDs) wrote into the magazine that it was an error. So some people have a very strong contrary intuition.
Well, my guess is that's because you've fixed your intuitions either by prior exposure to the problem or education. Certainly I think it's intuitive - now. The point is most people's intuitions think it changes from 1/3 to 1/2, regardless of whether you switch or not.
But hey, maybe Bayesian inference is intuitive to you without any math education.
Meanwhile, when this was published in 1990 and thousands of people (10% with PhDs) wrote into the magazine that it was an error. So some people have a very strong contrary intuition.