News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado by parkingrift on Thursday January 06, 2022 @08:05AM (#29823041)
> It's probably better to have a 50% hospitalization rate and an R value of 0.8 than a 5% hospitalization rate and an R value of 2. After 3 'generations' of spreading the second situation already has more hospitalizations.

Sure, but those aren’t the only choices. Over the last 30 days the daily case average has increased by 500%. During that same time the daily average hospitalized has risen 100%.

And the test positivity rate has increased to almost 30%, which implies an almost comical undercount in actual cases.

The contagiousness and severity are diverging in an extraordinary way. We’re likely undercounting cases by 1/5 or 1/10th.

Re:Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado by ianhawes on Thursday January 06, 2022 @11:18AM (#29825471)
The testing positivity rate is relatively useless at this point. For example, in my State, there is no way to report a positive test from a rapid result. Only PCR tests administered by a medical professional are considered valid for statistical purposes, even though the government is giving out free rapid tests.
Re:Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado by thomaslord on Thursday January 06, 2022 @03:57PM (#29830044)
This is for good reason. Rapid tests are substantially less sensitive and often give false negatives, especially for asymptomatic cases. There are also a lot of rapid "at home" tests out there that have high false positive rates, so even if non-PCR tests were added to the data the only reasonable approach would be to still require them to be administered by a medical professional to make sure the test is correctly administered and that the test itself is relatively high quality.
Re:Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado by ianhawes on Friday January 07, 2022 @01:46PM (#29843033)
The idea that rapid tests are less sensitive and therefore not valuable is summer-2020 thinking and outdated.

Rapid tests are perfectly fine and should be counted by health departments.

Case in point. My family of 4 all tested positive on rapid tests. 3/4 of us had symptoms. None of us received PCR tests because the next available appointments (other than a 6 hour wait at a state run testing center) were a week away.

Thats 4 people not counted. And we were part of an outbreak that included 3 other families that all tested positive via rapid tests.

Re:Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado by parkingrift on Thursday January 06, 2022 @12:15PM (#29826360)
I don't think it's useless. I think it's a pretty good indication that there are many multiples of actual cases for every confirmed case. If covid cases have risen 5,000% in 30 days, but hospitalizations have only risen 100%, that's an extraordinarily positive outcome.
Re:Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado by TobTobXX on Thursday January 06, 2022 @11:57AM (#29826073)
Unknown cases don't use up ICU and hospital beds and don't result in deaths, so who cares?
Re:Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado by parkingrift on Thursday January 06, 2022 @12:12PM (#29826329)
It's pretty important to determine actual severity rates.