A ton of people have had well over year of working remotely while slowly losing personal connections with their teams. At the same time, people are generally reluctant to entertain a job switch in a time of uncertainty. It’s not a stretch to believe that as people accept the “new normal” they finally decide to move on.
Anecdotally, I’ve seen some of this. Voluntary attrition at work tanked during the first year of COVID and then started to uptick in late summer and fall of last year.
I put off looking for a new job at first because I was worried about a Covid-induced major economic downturn. I didn't want to be the new person when my employer is figuring out who to fire[1]. I only pulled the trigger when the numbers rebounded (and the downturn wasn't a big as I feared, consumer spending was really strong).
1. Or my personal nightmare, getting a downturn while serving notice and the new employer change their mind about the offer while jobs evaporate all around.
Is this actually true? I've seen this numerous times over the last 8-12 months and it's always stated as if it's obviously true. But, why? Why would people have put off switching jobs until November 2021? Covid has been about the same in 95% of America since June 2020.
I think there has to be some other explanation, or at least some data to support the idea that this is all just pent-up demand being released.