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A comment on ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory. Parent comment

Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by xadhominemx on Monday January 03, 2022 @11:14PM (#29791240)
China will not have a domestically sourced EUV scanner with commercially viable throughput within 20 years, if not longer. They are lacking precursor technologies to the precursor technologies, supply chains, talent, etc for both light source and optics, and unlike the rear of the semiconductor industry, those ecosystems are today found within the US and Europe, not Asia.
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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by scarab92 on Monday January 03, 2022 @11:32PM (#29791351)
Things move pretty fast in China, so even though they are slow to innovate they can quickly copy designs where enough detailed information exists in public.

EUV took decades and billions of dollars in trial and error before the current techniques were figured out. Due to the West's tendency to publish successful techniques, China won't have to repeat these steps.

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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by xadhominemx on Tuesday January 04, 2022 @10:13AM (#29795585)
There is not a single major advanced hard tech application where China has the leading technology (except for maybe sub-6 5G, which isn’t that difficult), and EUV is the most challenging hard tech application ever. So I am not that optimistic about their prospects.
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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by snicker7 on Tuesday January 04, 2022 @01:02AM (#29791902)
Things moved fast in China (rather Shrnzhen) due to a period of ultra-liberal economics that Xi is now dismantling.
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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by sudosysgen on Tuesday January 04, 2022 @02:22AM (#29792283)
Xi has been cracking down a lot on "soft tech". Hardware tech has never been anywhere close to liberal even in Shenzhen, where all levels of government always had massive levels of investment and involvement in the industry.
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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by sitkack on Tuesday January 04, 2022 @03:48AM (#29792718)
Could you define soft tech in this context?
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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by sudosysgen on Tuesday January 04, 2022 @05:37AM (#29793384)
Software, digital services, as opposed to technology pertaining to hardware.
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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by bobthepanda on Tuesday January 04, 2022 @12:30AM (#29791754)
YMMV, depending on the technology.

As an example where this hasn't worked so well, COMAC's aircraft production has not been doing too hot.

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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by kurthr on Monday January 03, 2022 @11:37PM (#29791383)
Yeah, I mostly agree, but do you consider Taiwan part of China? They do.

Japan and Korea also have pretty big talent in related areas. I believe that Intellectual Property often wears shoes, but a lot of SW, methods, specs, etc can be appropriated more quickly.

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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by nieve on Monday January 03, 2022 @11:50PM (#29791473)
Isn't Tiawan an EUV equipment customer, not supplier?
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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by ajmurmann on Monday January 03, 2022 @11:49PM (#29791464)
In practice, for where the money goes and what the CCP can block Taiwan right now isn't part of China. That seems like a situation that could change in the near future and the West should plan for.
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Re:ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory by xadhominemx on Tuesday January 04, 2022 @10:02AM (#29795478)
Taiwan has an even smaller chance of developing an EUV stepper than China. They don’t even really have a precision equipment industry.
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