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Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by notahacker on Monday January 03, 2022 @07:15AM (#29779990)
Yes, if you completely ignore the probability of detection being much higher when the virus reaches an urban area, and the reference in my post to the original SARS virus being traced to an "origin" in an urban area 1000 miles from its animal source, much like the MERS virus was identified in Jeddah and not amongst camel herders in the desert, you can make up new estimates which also bear no resemblance to the actual underlying probabilities.
Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by Flankk on Monday January 03, 2022 @08:12AM (#29780418)
No to mention that the outbreak is the first known one, not the origin

Epidemiologists conducted an extensive investigation to trace the origin. The probability of detection is not higher in the city. So I'm afraid that's incorrect. You're not making any sense here. You're disputing both the lab leak theory and the wet market theory? You're just shifting the goalposts to fit your argument.

Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by notahacker on Monday January 03, 2022 @08:55AM (#29780768)
Epidemiologists conducted an extensive investigation to trace the origin and also didn't find any connection whatsoever with the lab. I'm not sure why every theory that doesn't involve the lab is forced to conform to the assumption that epidemiologists know everything there is to know about the source of COVID, something epidemiologists themselves didn't claim when identifying the wet market as the initial superspreader event, most likely from animals or traders originating from unknown regions outside the city.

Of course a novel coronavirus - especially one that does not produce severe or unusual symptoms in most infected people - is more likely to be identified when it becomes established in a city where it spreads quickly to many people with access to good healthcare, not a rural area where there are fewer people and more basic healthcare which infected people are less likely to use. This is why the outbreak of the original SARS novel coronavirus was identified in an urban area 1000 miles from the suspected zoonotic source of the virus, not in the neighbouring village whose unidentified inhabitants (or animal produce) most likely transmitted it to the city. It is not me "shifting the goalposts" that you continue to pretend I didn't point that out in my first post.