Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by onlyrealcuzzo on Sunday January 02, 2022 @07:32PM (#29775817)

If you look at expected years of life lost - and the average person is ~30 - you could multiply the numbers by ~47.

~47 x 5,000 = 235k years of life (extra).

In the US in 2020 the average age of death from Covid was ~77 [1]. People ~77 are expected to life ~10.2 years [2]. In 2020, there were ~350k Covid deaths [3]. But (very crudely) 3.5M years of life lost.

This small group of 11,000 people (3%) made up 7% of years of life lost.

By 2021, the average age of Covid death was ~67 - so the average person was losing ~17 years of life [1]. This is because that extra ~5,000 deaths has so much weight.

[1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wvpublic.org/health-science...

[2] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

[3] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm

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Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by strulovich on Sunday January 02, 2022 @08:55PM (#29776439)

This calculation is wrong. While the average 77 years old person will live 10.2 years, it’s not founded and unlikely the people dying from Covid at that age are distributed uniformly.

Most likely a 77 yo dying of Covid is in worse health and have more co morbidities than the average 77 yo.

This calculation is interesting and a good way to look at things, but it requires more nuance that is likely to reduce those numbers.

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Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by dh5 on Sunday January 02, 2022 @07:38PM (#29775888)

I'm not sure that calculation makes sense. If someone has already lived to 77 he probably has a much higher chance of living to 78 than the average person. And if someone has lived past 78 does that mean he's lost negative years of life?

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Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by dlp211 on Sunday January 02, 2022 @07:49PM (#29775978)

Yep, 78 is life expectancy at birth. Your life expectancy goes up every day you are alive.

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Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by shalmanese on Monday January 03, 2022 @01:32AM (#29777995)

Well... every day bar one.

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Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by onlyrealcuzzo on Sunday January 02, 2022 @07:48PM (#29775967)

Thanks - added a reference to an actuary table.

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