I also made a prediction: It will be banned eventually. Not because I or anyone else doesn't like it, but because it is a disaster in the making. PoW currencies are already a significant drag factor on, for example, ML research. The drag factor is increasing, and it will be felt in more and more industries.
You can only replace so much real economic activity by literal hot air production before it causes an acute crisis.
Better to focus on replacing all energy production with green sources and taxing polluters rather than trying to ban specific energy uses you don't like.
If pollution stops being free, the market will finally be incentivized to reduce it.
I haven't actually seen the numbers before but this is pretty absurd:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/02/Glo...
> Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 percent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) in 2017
> coal and petroleum together account for 85 percent of global subsidies
It's value is only based upon how much value people ascribe to it. And for that, I don't really care how what people ascribe to it, so long as they pay for the pollution they produce in the process.
We can handle transactions with quite little energy using traditional means. It’s not pseudonymous or decentralized and it’s not extremely efficient. But compared to Bitcoin it’s a wonder of efficiency.
I wouldn’t take anything off the table when it comes to banning energy use. But rendering in particular seems like a strange choice.
Incandescent bulbs were banned because there was a good alternative. PoW cryptocurrency is the incandescent bulb.
The thing about Bitcoin is that it’s mature tech now. Whatever promises it has should be materialized now. If it’s to be a currency rather than a store of value and instrument of speculation - it ought to show already. But it doesn’t. It hasn’t materialized. And we shouldn’t be sinking resources into something that is perpetually a few years from being a currency.
How do you think I donate to the anti-Putin opposition every month?!
The violent standing armies (and their logistics networks) that protect other international currencies from manipulation and attack use far more energy and do it in very violent, centralized ways.
It boggles the mind that there is now essentially a worldwide tax on semiconductors, which is used to do... nothing of any value whatsoever.
And this thing just keeps growing. The effects will be felt in more and more economic sectors. Something will have to give.
So, the only question is: Will we be smart enough to ban it soon and avert the worst consequences, or will this thing blow up in a huge way and we ban it afterwards.