https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...

1) total hospital admissions (not just those with covid but those without) and how that compares to a normal winter. If 4% of the country test positive for covid at the moment and 4% of hospital admissions have covid, that’s to be expected for example

2) age of those being admitted compared with covid by age

4) vaccination of those being admitted

There’s a chance that the Hugh number of cases is in those who are young and vaccinated and less likely to need hospitalisation, and we’ll soon reach peak transmission and cases will drop come January without it overwhelming hospitals.

There’s also a chance that it will spread to more vulnerable people, especially once school returns next week and grandparents start babysitting again, and hospitalisations will shoot up about 3rd/4th week in January as it spreads throughout the over 60s.

It’s not just a matter of dividing infections by hospitalisations a week later, getting a number, and plugging it in to calculate capacity. Not is it a matter of comparing those going into hospital with covid with last year, as more cases means fewer people going in without covid.