I think the pandemic will be declared over in 2023. In the US, with a pandemic end in view and the Fed raising rates the Fed's balance sheet will become a major narrative https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
We will have to start thinking about the end of the "everything bubble" and the realization of the massive economic hang over from so much stimulus.
That is so 6 months from now at least though. Tonight we party like its 1999.
I wouldn't go long on crypto as is. Eventually it'll just be another complex trading instrument owned by the banks.
Payments are still dominated by credit / debit cards. In some markets app based mobile payments are starting to take off, but it really doesn't look like BTC is gaining any market share.
Maybe I'm missing something, but as far as I can tell I can't buy a single thing that I would want to buy with BTC.
It's actually getting worse. Some years ago I bought something with BTC. Now fees are so high that it is practically impossible to buy stuff with BTC.
And even if you just use BTC for transferring money, you need 3rd parties to buy/sell bitcoins (and they will charge a fee). You can't keep your money in BTC, because as I stated above you can't buy anything with BTC.
What you're listing as a downside is actually a upside - both sides are happy to cut out the 3rd party and replace it with two 2nd parties - the sender/recipient and the cryptocurrency exchange. It's less hard and cheaper than finding a common third party (also, finding a common party is impossible in some cases) and much more reliable/trustable in summary.
Yeah micro-payments and in-store payments are not revolutionized by BTC, but that does not mean BTC is useless.
Please read this book if you doubt what I'm saying. It's not a god damn conspiracy theory.
https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Children...
That value judgment may look a lot like an ad hominem, but it’s perfectly rational—for example, in this case, the question is, should I take the time to seriously engage with a book written by a man who claims vaccines cause autism, led a group that opposed flouridation of drinking water, claimed that 5G “damages DNA” and is being installed to facilitate “mass surveillance”, and, oh, by the way, is a master falconer? (Nothing wrong with that, but I find it hilarious.)
Obviously the answer is no. There are a lot of interesting, well-founded books on science that I want to read, and I just don’t have time to read a book by a master falconer, let alone engage meaningfully with it online. Maybe the earth is flat, and I’m just living with my head in the sand. Oh well?
Money markets will go up and down surfing the good and bad news of Covid, but will cool off with the social cracks made by inflation and the timid “end of free” money. Bitcoin will go up but not reach 100k.
Tech’s gonna tech. Nothing profoundly new, the already big ones will continue to inflate and rake the money, sure they’ll get flak, fight a few big fines, make sure the right-to-repair plane lands of favorable ground. Their angst about the unknown future will increase but the bottom line will be great.
New hacks and leaks scandals, a roaring for a few weeks about it, nothing fundamental will change.
More “EVs surpassed ICE car sales” news, existing infrastructure will not be able to accommodate them and that will be mainstream news.
Shortages of things ( both legit and artificial) will continue and contribute to market instability and high prices.
When there’s instability among the people, the regimes tend to find a common enemy to save themselves. I fear the start of big wars in 2022, the west will pussy out because the cost is high and they aren’t willing to pay, the other parties know it. In the next years somebody’s gonna get too greedy and the cost will stop being too high.
Socially, people will realize things change but they mostly stay the same. They can change by refusing to not play the game, will they have the courage to live without the goodies they’ve learn to pursuit?