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A comment on Some Apple engineers rewarded up to $180k in stock bonuses as incentive to stay. Parent comment

Re:Some Apple engineers rewarded up to $180k in stock bonuse... by jonas21 on Tuesday December 28, 2021 @04:36PM (#29718550)
It's not really that much of an outlier -- AAPL has had pretty ridiculous growth in each of the previous 4-year periods this century as well.

    2021-12-28   $179.29   4.19x
    2017-12-28   $ 42.77   2.14x
    2013-12-28   $ 20.00   2.65x
    2009-12-28   $  7.56   2.87x
    2005-12-28   $  2.63   6.57x
    2001-12-28   $  0.40   3.33x
    1997-12-28   $  0.12
I agree this can't go on for too much longer, if only because governments will eventually stop Apple if they control too much of the economy. But is there room for another 4x? Maybe?
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Re:Some Apple engineers rewarded up to $180k in stock bonuse... by missedthecue on Tuesday December 28, 2021 @04:42PM (#29718612)
Apple being a $12 trillion company in four years just seems pretty low probability to me.
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Re:Some Apple engineers rewarded up to $180k in stock bonuse... by lotsofpulp on Tuesday December 28, 2021 @05:07PM (#29718860)
Would you have you ascribed a low probability to Apple being $3T as of Dec 2021 back in Sep 2019 (when it hit $1T)?
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Re:Some Apple engineers rewarded up to $180k in stock bonuse... by missedthecue on Tuesday December 28, 2021 @08:21PM (#29720565)
yes, and with each rapid doubling, the probability of further doubling decreases.
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Re:Some Apple engineers rewarded up to $180k in stock bonuse... by ZephyrBlu on Tuesday December 28, 2021 @05:13PM (#29718910)
What you aren't taking into account is that the larger you are, the more difficult it is to grow. You can even see this in Apple's growth since 2005 slowly declining.

The last couple of years have been absolutely bonkers. 4x-ing from here would be 17x their valuation in 2017. Controlling for inflation, the probability of that happening given their current valuation seems ridiculously low.

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