Re:Turkey's Financial Crisis
by financetechbro on Friday December 24, 2021 @02:13PM
(#29676755)
US does not have negative rates. Every other central bank would raise interest rates with inflation at the levels we’re seeing in turkey. They problem here is that Turkey is doing the opposite
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The US doesn't have negative interest rates, but with inflation over 6% and rates at 1.25% that's a pretty big negative real rate...
Re:Turkey's Financial Crisis
by dan-robertson on Friday December 24, 2021 @07:45PM
(#29679224)
If you look at the long-term expected inflation rate based on T-bill yields, it is not so different from before (say around 2018-19 or so). I think 6% is probably an inappropriate number to use in this comparison. Though I agree it looks like negative real rates.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE
(Alternatively you could suppose we’ll have inflation at x for one year and y on average for the next 9. If that’s the case I think the data above implies x=2.22% and y=4.7%, so I still think 6% is too much but maybe not totally crazy)
Re:Turkey's Financial Crisis
by dan-robertson on Saturday December 25, 2021 @07:42AM
(#29682811)
Ugh, x and y the wrong way round obviously.