I think you've answered your own question: probably never. Because whatever company would apply said commoditized data science would have the same incentives as Tinder and the rest.

So except for some "open source" or otherwise "community-driven" effort, I don't think we'll ever see it.

The issue with setting this up in your garage is that for such an app to work, you need to have many users. And to have many users, you have to spend cash on marketing, etc. So you have to be able to get that cash back somehow, and then some, for your efforts.

Imagine if a company had this business idea: If you get married to someone we introduce to you, you pay us 10000 USD. Else you pay us nothing. Would not that raise the bar?

It would really encourage people not looking for marriage to use the app for dating, since their use would be free. It would, of course, also result in the site taking steps to eliminate them, maybe even tolerating false positives. In the end would it produce good results? Dunno.

(Also would add legal complications most dating sites, regardless of model, don't deal with because of the Statute of Frauds in relation to contracts in consideration of marriage.)

Some of the modern Indian dating apps seem to follow this approach and do quite well. It’s likely more accepted there because of the tradition of arranged marriages. Western audiences might find it strange.

Maybe you need a non-profit for this.

I believe that is the only way indeed. Though another commenter noted that these kinds of apps are heavily dependent on a network to work. Perhaps it can be an extension on Mastodon somewhere in the future.

Matchmaking is such a generic problem anyway. Friends, Business relations, Vacancies, Partners, Sex buddies. We'll get there, I believe.

what about web3? that seems to be thrown around as the solution for everything as of late. Couldn't decentralization actually help in this case?

yea, the incentive structure makes most current dating services very antisocial.

i have heard that traditional matchmakers get paid years after the first date, maybe even after a marriage.

Yep. And Tinder seemed so useful just a few years ago. More recently, perhaps some management there has got together and changed to exactly the sort of strategy you speak of. I barely use it anymore.

But back in the golden days of Tinder... (say 7-8 years ago or so-- 2014ish) Tinder worked really well to deliver many matches. These days... very few matches compared to Bumble or Hinge for example.