Re:S.Africa says vaccines, prior infection help mildness of ...
by rsynnott on Monday December 20, 2021 @07:42AM
(#29624235)
> Now we have large numbers of vaccinated out there I really think we should see a lot less of "new infections" type stats, and a lot more of "in hospitals" type stats... in places with 90-95%+ vaccination rates THAT is the numbers that are important for things like opening up/locking down.
So, the trouble with that is that hospitalisation is a lagging indicator. By the time hospitalisation starts rising rapidly, you could lock everyone in their houses and it would still rise rapidly for another week or so. Which will probably overwhelm your hospitals.
Even in places with 95% vaccination, case counts are still _generally_ a reasonable indicator of where hospitalisation is headed; some fraction of those cases will convert to hospitalisations due to that vulnerable 5%, and due to people for whom the vaccination doesn't work very well (immunocompromised and extremely ill people, generally).
So, the trouble with that is that hospitalisation is a lagging indicator. By the time hospitalisation starts rising rapidly, you could lock everyone in their houses and it would still rise rapidly for another week or so. Which will probably overwhelm your hospitals.
Even in places with 95% vaccination, case counts are still _generally_ a reasonable indicator of where hospitalisation is headed; some fraction of those cases will convert to hospitalisations due to that vulnerable 5%, and due to people for whom the vaccination doesn't work very well (immunocompromised and extremely ill people, generally).