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Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by headsoup on Sunday December 19, 2021 @06:01AM (#29612994)
What's a sufficient level then? It was once 70%, then 80, then 90. Now we have places pushing 95 and that's still not enough? Perhaps we should be paying a bit closer attention to what the vaccines aren't doing.
Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by marvin on Sunday December 19, 2021 @07:25AM (#29613363)
This will eventually blow over. People getting infected with a variant that the vaccine does not prevent infection against, will still develop their immune reaction for that variant. At some point in the future there will once again be a balance between the collective immune response and the transmissability of the virus. The vaccines available right now are still obviously the best measure we have to make getting to that point less painful, as they reduce hospitalizations dramatically.

It's pretty obvious that e.g. if a 50% vaccination rate leaves the ICU at 10x capacity during an unmitigated outbreak, a 90% vaccination rate would be preferable even if it doesn't prevent the need for quarantine measures. This means that contact-reducing measures don't have to be as severe while the outbreak is happening.

Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by usrusr on Sunday December 19, 2021 @07:05AM (#29613287)
Delta and Omicron are just so much "faster" than what we encountered before. Thankfully the general working principle of the brakes (vaccines) seems to be mostly unaffected by them, but we have to press them harder.

What the vaccines are not doing: make it 2019 again.

Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by fsh on Sunday December 19, 2021 @06:09AM (#29613033)
100% would be ideal. It seems to impossible to achieve herd immunity against COVID (whether by vaccination or by immunity due to infection), so everyone will get it eventually. The more are vaccinated, the lower the load on the healthcare system will be.
Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by refurb on Sunday December 19, 2021 @09:10AM (#29614069)
You will never hit 100% vaccinated. A big part of public health is “compliance”. Compliance rates with cancer are low 90% and these are people that die without treatment.

Hitting mid-80% is actually pretty impressive.

Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by headsoup on Sunday December 19, 2021 @06:19AM (#29613073)
100% is only an ideal if we don't really believe anything less will work...

Don't we want some sort of control group to remain for these vaccines that don't formally conclude their trials for a couple of years yet? Or is everyone just 100% convinced that nothing could possibly go wrong at this point? That would be proper scientific diligence.

Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by fsh on Sunday December 19, 2021 @06:38AM (#29613165)
This is about a medical intervention, not about a scientific study. Vaccine adverse events are usually evaluated by comparing with background rates from previous studies. Control groups are used in randomized control trials and are probably mostly worthless without randomization.
Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by headsoup on Sunday December 19, 2021 @05:54PM (#29619386)
Except the trials are still underway, so yes, it is about scientific study. And proper diligence and reporting is critical for such a significant experiment, wouldn't you think?
Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by marvin on Sunday December 19, 2021 @07:28AM (#29613377)
> Or is everyone just 100% convinced that nothing could possibly go wrong at this point

What would be an example of something going wrong? Are you thinking that a sub-optimal outcome might occur ("the pandemic lasted 4 months longer than it had to") or that 80% of the people vaccinated drop dead in 2025?

The first case would be an unfortunate case of the best attempt of a decision made on uncertain data turning out to be incorrect in retrospect.

In the latter case, civilization is still protected as many people chose not to get vaccinated.

Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by headsoup on Sunday December 19, 2021 @09:53AM (#29614378)
We don't know do we. That's the fact. And how would we know if the control group is just removed (as Pfizer did in their phase 3 trials anyway...)?

I guess hopefully we don't find out, because the only way it'll ever be clearly distinguished is if it goes very badly across the board. Anything less can quite simply be explained away. Isn't it nice for Pfizer/Moderna to be able to run the long-term study with immunity in a manner that is very hard to understand clinical outcomes (except the huge side-effect profile readily dismissed as 'acceptable' because some deaths are more important than others).

Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by marvin on Monday December 20, 2021 @06:49PM (#29632031)
Not sure if this is the kind of reply you're hoping for, but I've been super encouraged by the defensive stance that Scandinavian authorities took with regards to the AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines once observations of rare side effects became available.

These decisions were mired in a whole lot of suspicious and unnecessary controversy. Rare and specific blood clots on the order of 1 per 20,000 vaccinations turned the ethical consideration of the vaccines from "obviously good" to "obviously bad" overnight, and they were removed from the program immediately. A single-digit number of unnecessary deaths were caused, but the buck stopped there.

I'm not as encouraged by the international response to this research and operative decision. It could be argued at the time that the Scandinavian decisions were made in the light of populations that had sufficiently low mortality from covid that the ethical consideration was different than in Europe at large.

But to my eyes, the European decision to keep using the AZ and J&J vaccines had an air of "let's not look too closely, or maybe we'll see something bad". Norwegian case studies indicated that the rare blood clots were pretty frickin' hard to distinguish from conditions caused by common lifestyle diseases. Two cases were specifically diagnosed only because they happened in doctors who ran themselves through a battery of expensive tests few normal patients would have qualified for. My qualified guess: There are rare but deadly and persistent side effects with these vaccines, that won't be discovered in healthcare environments that aren't finely tuned.

I suppose my point is that if there (God forbid) happen to exist bad but rare and non-obvious side effects of the new RNA vaccines, the truth can be uncovered. I'm not sure that a deliberate control group would be any good regardless; the AZ/J&J side effects were rare enough not to be seen in the control group. But they were still bad enough to disqualify the vaccines.

The whole thing is a super interesting subject, and it's obviously so political and subject to propaganda that you'd need a very critical eye to navigate it. Unless again, heaven forbid, the effect is so bad that it's obvious. Different health authorities do have different degrees of honesty and principled handling of these questions. There are control groups available; the large population of people who decide skip vaccination.

Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by hef19898 on Sunday December 19, 2021 @06:05AM (#29613017)
No idea what a sufficient level is, Delta, Omicron and all that considered. Also, I am not into pandemic modelling. Since I don't necessarily care where the level right now is, peiple can always look up the latest papers and studies in that topic.
Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by dzhiurgis on Sunday December 19, 2021 @06:04AM (#29613007)
NZ has 95% rate and just got first omicron cases few days in strict quarantine. Will see how it will go.
Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by hef19898 on Sunday December 19, 2021 @06:07AM (#29613024)
What a sufficient level is also depends on the goal: Eradicting Covid would require higher rates then just turning into a less serious endemic virus. Personally I think eradication is impossible by now.
Re:Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norw... by refurb on Sunday December 19, 2021 @09:12AM (#29614080)
Singapore hit 90%+ vaccination (eligible) a month ago and just got over a raging wave of Delta infections.